The low revisions of the growth forecast for Spain EN 2021 and 2022 are followed these days by institutions, international organizations and study services, but this cut of the gross domestic product (GDP) is not homogeneous for all national territory
.
Although the Government maintains that GDP will rebound by 6.5% this year and 7% next, the independent taxability authority (AIREF) places these advances at 5.5% and 6.3%, respectively;
BBVA Research is committed to rebounds of 5.2% and 5.5%;
And the function analysts panel published this Wednesday an update of its estimates up to 5.1% and 6% for this exercise and the next one.
Among the reasons not only is the cut of 1.7 points in the growth of the second quarter published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) a few weeks ago, but raising energy and bottlenecks in supply chains
They have contributed to these reviews.
These two factors incide especially in the autonomous communities with greater presence of the industrial sector, which is in turn more dependent on energy consumption and is also suffering the deficit of the inputs and its consequent price increase.
“The communities of northern Spain consume more energy per unit of GDP produced. It is more necessary that they transform their production chains in the medium term to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and, in the short term, their economies are more affected by
The increase in the cost of energy, which is already posing difficulties in some basic industries such as the steel “, warns the BBVA Studies Service at its last regional observatory, published on Wednesday.
For this reason, Aragon has been the community with a greater cut of growth by this entity, 1.9 points, when passing from 6.6% to 4.7% by 2021, and the second one with the greatest cut HA
been the Basque Country, whose low forecast of 6.2% to 4.6%.
By 2022, the greatest rebates are for the archipelagos, given the lowest recovery provided in external tourism and the delay in the deployment of European funds.
The forecast of the Balearics 3.2 points is cut, from 11.6% to 8.4%, and that of the Canary Islands, from 10.7% to 8.7%, but still the islands will be the regions that most
Crezcan next year with Madrid and Catalonia, according to this entity.
The following with more discounts are the industrialists: Basque Country means having an expectation of growth from 7.5% to 5.2%;
The Navarra Farm Community passes from 7.3% to 5.4%;
and La Rioja from 6.5% to 4.8%.
In fact, the latter and Asturias will be the least to grow next year (4.8% and 4.5%, respectively).
“The dependence on energy with high costs, bottlenecks in the production of the industrial sector and the need for reconversion towards less polluting activities involve a greater challenge for communities such as Galicia, Asturias, Castilla y León, Aragon and Basque Country”,
They point out.
These communities -asturias (4.5%), La Rioja (4.8%), Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha (4.9%), Basque Country (5.2%), and Aragon, Galicia and Navarra
(5.4%) – They will grow below the average.
In these autonomies, it has been observed in 2021 a brake on investment in equipment goods, which has been reduced by the rise in prices.
The cost of energy limits the recovery capacity of industrial zones and its investment
In fact, BBVA points out that the recent rise in the price of oil – which could subtract an additional tenth to the growth of 2021 and three more than that of 2022 – will especially cut the GDP of Galicia, Aragon, Asturias and Navarra.
According to the latest regional accounting data published by the INE, updated to 2019, Navarra is the region with a greater weight of the industrial sector (28.1% of GDP), followed by La Rioja (23.7%), Basque Country (22
, 1%), Aragon (19.6%) and Cantabria (18.9%).
These regions are also those that have a greater proportion of jobs in that sector: 26.5% of assets in Navarra works in the industrial sector;
In La Rioja they are 25.6%;
In Basque Country, 20.7%;
And in Aragon, 18.2%, according to the last EPA.
