At least 150,000 jobs and half a point of GDP: the bill’s economic and political instability,”The political and economic instability cause higher doses of risk and inequality”Will criptomonedas the guilty of a new financial crisis?
Nadia Calviño, minister of Economy in office, was recognized just three weeks that investors had transmitted some concern at the political instability. That was before it was known that Spain will go to their fourth election in four years. Then, we asked to the responsible of the finances of our country that will form a strong Government, without fissures. They did the opposite, and now Spain is doomed to break at least until the early 2020’s.
The forecast of GDP for the next year stood at about 2.2-2.4%, depending on what agency you go to. Bank of Spain, IMF, Funcas, the Government itself… each one gives a different amount, but all agree that this situation benefits no one. However, there are those who still trust in the national economy. It is the case of Capital Group , one of the largest asset managers of investment funds that is approaching little by little to the height of 3 billion dollars under management.
“We really like Spain . We are overweight the bond market Spanish. We are confident in the country. When you look back and you see the measures implemented by the Spanish economy after the european crisis to withdraw from the markets of the countries of the european periphery like Italy, you could say that from our point of view, “taking their medicine” and restructure their finances, won a great deal of credibility,” he says in an interview with ABC’s Jeremy Cunningham, director of Investments at Capital Group.
The political situation, as well as the rest of investors, retracts the investment; it is what you come alerting different agencies. Is more, BBVA Research warned makes scant months of this landscape of risk has diminished since between half a point and a point of GDP; and employment-we talk about 150,000-200,000 jobs. Even so, this manager has clear ideas about our country: “If you see our portfolios, we are very happy to be overweight the segment of Spanish bonds. Because, yes, the political situation is unstable, but what really matters are the economic measures that have been implemented”. And, in relation to the rest of the EU, Cunningham is clear on this point. “We think that is best positioned in Europe to adopt tax measures . In general it is a country that is still in the territory of growth and that’s why we like countries such as Spain. We’re not very worried,” he says.
Jeremy Cunningham, director of Capital Investment Group, during the interview with ABC – IGNACIO GIL
Likewise, the chief Investment officer of the firm recognizes that its commitment to Spain is more fiercely than for the other territories of the Old Continent. Responsible for Capital Group points out that “Spain is better than Italy” , although the alpine country will also have an overweight in your portfolio of european bonds. “We have infraponderados the core countries, the so-called “core”. Refers to, for example, Germany, which is now several months flirting with a technical recession. Two consecutive quarters of GDP negative. Between April and June the economy of the germans declined by 0.1% and now all eyes are watching what will happen in this third quarter. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has already announced new stimulus measures for the Eurozone, especially the so-called “German locomotive”.
Cunningham came to the interview with this newspaper wearing a suit, with a smile. It was a clear day in Madrid… while in London, everything continued crooked. Clouds that are its reason for being in the Brexit. It dares even to joke about the exit of Uk from the EU and, in their words, it is inferred that it is this situation that bothered. “The Brexit is a big concern,” he says. Despite this, there are also other risks in your radar. “It is interesting to see what the risks may be because you can go in any direction in Europe,” he says. After a little reflection, the chief Investment officer of Capital Group refers to the “populist movement” and the “export activity, related to the commercial war”. Two key aspects to any analyst. So, the recession is not an option that contemplates, at least in the short-term: “we are Not seeing a recession immediately. I mean in the next 12-20 months,” . And speaking of “resynchronization of growth” in this scenario of global economic slowdown.
in the Past, retail investors had in the fixed income your best option for profitability. Reaching rates of 4-5% in the last few decades and now, with low interest rates -“we will be in a period of low rates for a long period of time,” says Cunningham-, that is already a thing of the past. “Traditionally, the investores wanted by bonds of the State: in Spain, in United Kingdom… in all the world. With a 4% return. Those days are gone,” he says. The question more is do among the experts in these times is what will come now. “The solution is to the debt, State and corporate, of emerging countries”. The world order has been reversed.
