The Covid moves stealthily through the European continent, makes less noise than before (the saturation of the ICU still does not oblige to impose severe restrictions) but it is charged victims and, above all, massively contagious, hence it has put against the ropes
service sector.
It is not only that the fear of contagion has gauge sectors that require social interaction such as tourism and leisure, but companies in the sector begin to suffer a problem of absenteeism for the contagions or isolates of their workers, which impacts
Negatively at your level of activity.
The impact of the pandemic in the economy is again noticed, as reflected in the PMI indexes published on Monday on Evolution in the month of January of the Service sector – which accuses a strong deceleration – and the manufacturing industry – which is
recovers slightly by relief on bottlenecks.
The advance indicators that the OECD publishes monthly and that serve to predict inflection points in the economy (times when optimism results in pessimism, and vice versa) also confirm slowdown.
In fact, the consumer confidence index relating to Spain has not stopped going down from October 2021, in line with the falls you have experienced in the OECD and in the Eurozone.
This discouragement is not perceived in the industrial sector, which begins to notice an improvement in the disruptions of supply chains.
However, given the low weight that supposes with respect to GDP (it does not reach 20% in Europe and only accounts for 15% in Spain) it is not enough to avoid a global economic slowdown sponsored by the tertiary sector.
“I think the first quarter will be loose, there will be a positive but retracement growth in relation to the fourth quarter, that is, the rebound of the industry does not compensate in the short term the fall of services,” says the world Raymond Torres, director
of economic conjuncture of functions.
It explains that the PMI confirm “the deterioration in services as a result of omicron”, but that there is positive data such as the industry’s pMI improves fruit of the smoothing of bottlenecks and expectations are favorable for the next few months
.
“One could lean over a globally positive vision, but that without having the main challenge: energy prices, in part by geopolitical tensions, and its effect on inflation,” he warns.
Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain of BBVA Research, agrees that a slowdown is taking place.
“The Spanish economy progresses, and it is expected that this year growth exceeds 5% again, above the euro zone. However, it is charged with a ballast that is likely a slowdown during the coming months,” he says, in
Allusion to the evolution of the pandemic.
The economist of the BBVA Study Service explains that the increase in contagions “enforce a weakening of recovery in Spain at the beginning of 2022”.
“The ballast that carries the economy is important. The increase in contagions has led several countries of the euro zone and some autonomous communities to impose restrictions of movement or schedule. This has already happened a year ago and the result was a contraction of the
Economy In the first quarter of 2021. On the other hand, the profitability of companies has been considerably resentfully. The increase in the price of fuel, energy or various inputs has increased costs, without much part of the above.
been transferred to the consumer, “he says.
