The shortage of skilled workers is becoming the greatest risk. For the majority of companies, this is more of a threat than inflation, the gas crisis and the Ukraine crisis combined. By 2030 there will be a shortage of at least four million workers, mainly educators, teachers and nurses.
What Germany needs now: A triad of immigration, flexible working models and more further training. And the potential of people with a migration background, women and older people is enormous and must be tapped to counteract this shortage.
Many industries can no longer survive today without foreign workers. The proportion of foreign workers in all employees subject to social security contributions has more than doubled since 2010 from 1.9 million to 4.2 million.
In the MINT professions such as electricians or engineers, the migrant employment dynamic is almost four times higher than in the case of German skilled workers. In the private sector, the proportion is already 26 percent. Germany will continue to depend on immigration in the future. There are currently almost two million vacancies, and the trend is rising.
The misery at German airports has recently shown how complicated and time-consuming the legal hurdles for foreign skilled workers are. Procedures need to be speeded up and rules on equivalence of qualifications and language skills need to be significantly streamlined.
The classic eight-hour day is becoming obsolete in times of home offices and mobile working. The “100:80:100 working society” will become the new model. 100 percent productivity with 80 percent working week and 100 percent wages.
While in Germany the leading business associations are calling for a 42-hour week, companies in Great Britain are going the opposite way and are backing the 32-hour week. Flexible, needs-based working hours, combined with home office, also reduce healthcare costs because they improve mental and physical health.
The success lies in flexible time models: In Belgium, for example, employees can choose whether they want to work the specified 40 hours per week on five days as before or on four days. According to surveys, more than two-thirds (70%) would rather work 4 than 5 days a week for the same number of hours.
It must also be possible to work overtime with higher salaries. Modern employers offer their employees the entire range of working time models: from part-time to the 4-day week to longer full-time. This also applies to the place of work. Home office, hybrid and mobile work such as office work must complement each other and not exclude each other.
In a long-lived society, another model is becoming obsolete: retirement at 65 or 67. Those who work less or take longer breaks more often will work voluntarily beyond the previous age limit.
Older people are already more frequently employed today than they were 10 years ago. Their share has doubled: from four percent in 2009 to eight percent in 2019. Longer working hours will be possible for more and more employees thanks to increased life expectancy. By 2060, 65-year-old men will have another 21.8 years and 65-year-old women another 24.5 years on average.
Diverse, flexible and longer work requires more training. Qualification is becoming the new social issue in the world of work. A lifelong physically demanding work will be possible for very few employees. Shorter and better-paid training, combined with additional academic qualifications, enhances the value of skilled trades and makes vocational training more attractive.
When the narrow limits on the place of work and working hours are removed, personal responsibility and agile work in teams become more important. Management work becomes more democratic and becomes a service. The aim is more performance orientation, heterogeneity and permeability and better opportunities for advancement.
Demographic change is becoming the driver of transformation. “More for less” – achieving more productivity and performance with fewer staff – will become the motto for the future. Becoming more diverse and thinking demographically is becoming an overriding task for government and business.
Daniel Dettling heads the Institute for Future Policy he founded. The long version of the text appears in the September issue of KOMMUNAL.
