Erfurt (dpa/th) – According to a forecast by the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba), the Free State can expect economic growth of 1.5 percent this year. “That’s actually not so bad, also in view of the demographic development,” said Helaba chief economist Gertrud Traud on Tuesday in Erfurt. Nationwide, Helaba expects growth of 1.7 percent.
According to Traud, the population decline, especially of Thuringians of working age, is increasingly becoming a brake on growth. Immigration and the integration of migrants into the labor market are all the more important.
According to data from the State Statistical Office, the number of Thuringians of working age will fall by a quarter in the period up to 2040. According to this, Jena is the only city that can maintain its current level.
The good industrial base is having a positive effect on Thuringia’s economic development, said the Helaba economist. Through digitization and automation, she also has the opportunity to further improve her efficiency in the coming years. Thuringia is already one of the three federal states in Germany with the lowest emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2.
However, the growth forecast for this year would be invalid if the supply of oil and gas from Russia came to a sudden halt. In this case, the Landesbank expects “two years of recession in a row”.
Traud was critical of the federal government’s decision to subsidize fuel prices for three months and to introduce the 9-euro ticket for local transport. She expects deadweight effects, she said. From their point of view, it would have been better to use the money to expand the transport infrastructure and only to help people who needed it in view of the high energy prices. “Apparently they wanted to have short-term success,” said Traud.
