For two decades, Berlin has given the CDU the cold shoulder, but now the city is giving it a new chance. Top candidate Wegner rides a wave of frustration to victory in the repeat election. He wants to be governing mayor. But the way to the Rotes Rathaus is still a long way off.
When top candidate Kai Wegner arrives at the Berlin CDU election party shortly after 6 p.m., he can hardly believe it himself. “Overwhelming, madness!” he calls out to his fellow party members. His party won the election – and more clearly than most polls predicted. The CDU celebrates an increase of almost 10 percent, while the SPD of the Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey falls below the 20 percent mark. The Greens and Left are also losing, and the current red-green-red Senate has been penalized.
“I’m a little lost for words,” says Wegner into the cheers and applause. And then finds some: “It’s phenomenal and I can only say: Berlin has chosen the change.” Of course he also says that the CDU now has the government mandate. The thing with the change, however, is such a thing. Because for Wegner to actually make it to the executive chair, the Greens or the SPD would have to work with him. So part of the old Senate would still be on board.
Nevertheless, the CDU’s success is actually a phenomenon. For 20 years, the Union saw no country in the capital, and the SPD was able to plan victory in the elections to the House of Representatives. It’s no surprise that things could be different this time. The Social Democrats have been getting weaker and weaker results for years. Polls, on the other hand, have shown that the Union has been flying high for weeks.
In addition, Giffey and the Greens’ top candidate, Bettina Jarasch, didn’t just have a hearty argument during the election campaign – about whether housing corporations should be expropriated, parking spaces cut, or parts of the famous Friedrichstrasse turned into a pedestrian zone. It didn’t look like unity. But that is precisely one of the most important success factors if you want to win elections.
The fact that Berliners are (re)discovering their conservative side has a lot to do with frustration. Not only, but also about the fact that this election had to be repeated at all – it was the first time that this happened in the Federal Republic and was therefore one thing above all: embarrassing. But there was more. The rapidly increasing rents, which of course this Senate could not get under control within a year. Then the overburdened administration or the lack of teachers and educators. It is the problems of a rapidly growing metropolis that politicians only pant after.
Kai Wegner rode this wave of frustration to success – his charisma was less so. He was also the top candidate in 2021 and was unable to inspire Berliners. At that time he was a colorless third. The 50-year-old from Spandau promised something that is urgently needed in the capital: the basic virtues. Berlin should function again, he demanded. And hit the mark with it.
Well, there was something else. Only since the riots on New Year’s Eve did the CDU experience an unexpected rise in surveys – after all, internal security is part of their brand core. Notably, it did not harm the party that it requested a list of the suspects’ first names. This was flanked by the “Pascha” debate, with which CDU leader Friedrich Merz made the headlines. Many eligible voters did not take any offense at Wegner. The opposite is likely to have been the case, even if accusations of racism were not only hailing from the Greens. After all: Wegner then tried to keep the ball flat, not to refill it. He talked a lot about simply wanting to reach young people in hot spots. That it doesn’t matter whether someone’s name is Mehmet or Michael.
That could also be understood as a signal to the Greens. Because they are one of the two possible coalition partners. Wegner ruled out cooperation with the left and AfD, the FDP missed the return. On the other hand, it would be enough for two-party alliances with the Greens and the SPD. Whether that will happen is still entirely open.
Giffey and Jarasch both emphasized that it is now a matter of forging an alliance with a majority. They would also have red-green-red or green-red-red. Jarasch said that was her first choice – no wonder, because she could become the boss herself instead of Wegner’s junior partner.
In terms of content, the rifts between the CDU and the Greens are deep – in addition to the New Year’s Eve dispute, the main point of contention is transport policy and thus the question: Car – yes or no? It’s also a long way culturally. The Berlin CDU has its base in the quieter outskirts, the Greens in Mitte and the surrounding area. Neck steak versus veggie burger, if you will. But nothing can be ruled out – especially if the Greens end up in third place. Then they would at least have more posts in an alliance with the CDU.
And the SPD? Although he never explicitly stated that she was Wegner’s dream partner, he always let it be known. But should Giffey now make her opponent her boss? Or will she even be sawed off from her own ranks after the miserable result? In any case, black and red would not be a love marriage. Wegner will have to put a lot on the table. Otherwise, the winner could end up being a loser after all.
