Ukraine: the Wagner group claims the capture of part of Bakhmout

March 8, 2023

The Russian paramilitary group Wagner on Wednesday claimed the capture of the eastern part of Bakhmout, a city that has been at the heart of fighting for months in eastern Ukraine, and which could fall “in the coming days”, according to the secretary NATO general.

However, in Chassiv Iar, a little further west, Ukrainian howitzers fired tirelessly on Russian positions and tanks brought new troops to the front. According to Director of US Intelligence Avril Haines, the big Russian offensive that was feared a few weeks ago has fizzled, and the Kremlin – except to engage in a new massive mobilization and obtain from a third party massive arms deliveries – seems to have to settle for lowered targets.

But for now, “Wagner units have taken the entire eastern part of Bakhmout, everything east of the Bakhmoutka river” crossing the small town of Donbass, said in an audio message the boss of the paramilitary organization, Evguéni Prigojine.

While the Ukrainian forces defending the city are threatened with encirclement, the boss of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said he could not “exclude that Bakhmout finally falls in the coming days”.

“It does not necessarily reflect any turning point in the war,” he told reporters: “But it underlines that we must not underestimate Russia. We must continue to support Ukraine.”

For the time being in Chassiv Iar, a town located west of Bakhmout, the shots of the Ukrainian artillery posted around are constantly slamming and echoing on the empty buildings.

Armored vehicles regularly cross the locality, coming from the front or going there, their tracks leaving traces of black mud on the road.

Tense, even if they joke among themselves, a dozen soldiers are waiting for an armored vehicle which will take them to the front. In addition to their armament – rifles and RPG rocket launchers – the soldiers carry large shovels to build the trenches. Food, sleeping bag and floor mat complete the equipment.

Before getting on the tank, the soldiers surround their helmet and their right arm with a band of green tape, a distinctive sign to recognize themselves on the front.

The fighting is fierce, but in Washington the director of American intelligence, Avril Haines, estimated that the capacities of the Russian army were now limited.

“If Russia does not launch a mandatory mobilization, and does not identify significant supplies of ammunition from a third party, it will be even more and more difficult for it to maintain the current level of offensive operations during the coming months,” she told a Senate committee.

Therefore, Russian forces “could turn completely” to the defense of the territories they currently occupy, she said.

Meeting in Stockholm with their Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiï Reznikov, the 27 EU Defense Ministers are fine-tuning an emergency plan to deliver shell shipments to Kiev within a few weeks, while European stocks are themselves even under pressure.

“Our number one priority is air defense systems, as well as ammunition, ammunition, and more ammunition,” insisted the Ukrainian minister.

Despite the effective defense of the Ukrainians since the start of the battle for Bakhmout in August, Russia has been relentless in trying to conquer the city, at the cost of very heavy losses, as even the leader of the Wagner group admits.

The battle is the longest and deadliest since the outbreak of the Russian offensive in February 2022. While the strategic value of this city is disputed, it has gained symbolic importance, given the heavy losses suffered by both sides.

Moscow has been searching for a victory since its bitter defeats in the fall, and hopes that the city’s fall can open up control of the part of Donbass, an industrial region in eastern Ukraine, which it still escapes.

The Russians seem to control access to the city from the north, south and east, leaving only one exit route from the west to the Ukrainians.

Speculation has therefore been rife for weeks on a tactical withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Bakhmout.

In its latest report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also estimated that the Ukrainian forces had operated a “controlled withdrawal” from the east of Bakhmout, letting the Russians advance.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Maliar repeated in this regard on Wednesday that the battle of Bakhmout was in any case a “victory” in that it had made it possible to neutralize a large number of Russian soldiers and armaments which were engaged there.

Commenting on the broadcast of the video, which went viral, of a captured Ukrainian soldier apparently executed with a gunfire after shouting “Glory to Ukraine!”, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres underlined how ” shocking” under the “laws of war”.

Mr. Guterres met Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the extension of the agreement with Russia on the export of Ukrainian cereals by the Black Sea, of which he underlined to the press “the capital importance” for the supply of poor countries.

Mr. Zelensky said he also discussed “the many cases of kidnapping of our children by Russia” and how “we can bring them home”.