Ukraine is known as the granary of Europe. Before the Russian invasion, it produced enough grain to feed almost 500 million people each year. The war closed ports and borders, threatening crops, the country’s economy and causing famine in Africa. The EU, together with the United Nations, managed to establish “solidarity corridors” to get grain out of the country, eliminating controls, inspections and tariffs. And preparing an unprecedented logistics campaign to take the product to continental ports. The problem is that the grain has “flooded” its neighbors, in many cases it stays and does not go to Egypt or Pakistan, as it should. dropping prices and mobilizing farmers in the East. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria or Romania have announced restrictive measures and even a total ban on the entry of cereals. Brussels protests, but the conflict, in an electoral year for several of them, is deep.
Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have decided in recent days to close their borders to Ukrainian grain. Although on the afternoon of this Tuesday, Poland has announced an agreement with Ukraine to establish a “mechanism” to resume “transit through Poland” of Ukrainian grain, but without “not even a ton remaining in the country.” The neighbors to the East argue that there are health reasons, public concern and excess supply, which endangers not only the health but also the work of its citizens. The reality is that this year there are elections in Poland and Slovakia, and the rural vote is essential. Bulgaria has an interim government and political pressure in Romania is skyrocketing, with the agriculture minister about to lose his job. The farm workers are highly mobilized and are demanding that the arrival of Ukrainian cereals be cut off, which in theory should be on the way to destinations such as Pakistan, India or Egypt, but which in many cases have ended up staying in Europe, throwing down the prices of the local product.
All three, it seems. The European Commission has reacted this week denouncing the decision of those governments, recalling that all powers in trade matters are transferred to Brussels and warning, without microphones, that this path is unacceptable, unsupportive and could end up in court. If there are doubts in phytosanitary matters, you must be informed and act, but all at the same time. Last week a meeting between the minister of the Polish branch and his Ukrainian colleague was scheduled, but after being postponed, the community country announced the closure. Hungary, in perpetual tension with kyiv, immediately signed on. Warsaw is the one that is most between a rock and a hard place, the one that has made the decision and dragged the others. “Commercial policy is the exclusive competence of the European Union and decisions are made at the European level. Unilateral actions are not acceptable. In such complicated times, it is crucial to coordinate and align all decisions within the EU”, warned the spokesperson of Commerce, the Spanish Miriam García Ferrer. The Commission has asked all countries involved for full and formal explanations of its measures and the consequences.
For now, raise your voice and ask for explanations. But without looking for the shock, because the last year has been especially difficult for the border countries. “Poland and other neighbors have done everything in their power. It is not a question of sanctions, but of finding solutions based on European legislation, in the interests of Ukrainians and Europeans,” the chief spokesman of the Commission, showing understanding. The powers of Commerce are transferred to the European Commission, but simply alleging health issues, controls and temporary blockades would be authorized. But since the problem is political and the elections are at the end of the year, it is difficult to find a fast track. The farmers of the East want compensation and that the grain does not stay in their territory. Brussels can put money, but helping Ukraine is one of the priorities. Among the diplomatic delegations there is discomfort. Hungary always looks for any excuse not to sanction Russia or to annoy Kiev, but Poland is the great supporter of Ukraine and the one that has criticized its partners the most for not supporting sanctions, for stopping the shipment of arms or military material. Now, those same ones who received constant reprimands, wonder where the solidarity is and point to the hypocrisy of the East, ready to act when the issues align with their priorities, but slipping away when it is time to suffer, like the rest.
It is a serious economic and logistical problem for kyiv, which is completely dependent on the EU and the United States for its military and commercial survival. It is a problem for Spain, the Netherlands and the rest of the partners who want and need the cereals of Ukraine, the continental granary. And it is a problem of image and coordination for the entire EU, which, together with the United Nations, entrusted the subsistence of the Ukrainian countryside to this logistical macro-operation. When Russia closed the ports, the way to get food overland to EU ports was the only option to maintain supplies. But in addition, Moscow has only agreed to cooperate with its enemies on the grain issue, reaching an agreement to allow exports.
President Zelensky has mastered the art of public persuasion, but he can’t pull the strings. Poland or Slovakia are two of his most faithful supporters, in military, economic and political matters, and his concerns are legitimate. The grain has saturated its markets, thrown down prices, irritated a fundamental lobby ahead of the polls and created logistical problems and bottlenecks, which in turn affects other exports. Russia, always delighted to take advantage of divisions, puts pressure on it by interrupting ship inspections, which in effect causes the closure of authorized brokers. Brussels is preparing new aid packages, tens of millions of euros. And she has to make a decision regarding tariffs. Ukraine is not part of the Union, and therefore its products would have to pay certain border tolls. It was exempted for a year, but the term ends in June and it is not clear that it will be able to extend it for another 12 months, as was the initial intention, if there is not much more consensus. If the Commission took those who have imposed unilateral measures to the European Court, it would surely win, but that is a process that takes years, not months.
This clash, the most serious since the Russian invasion, is more than a temporary matter. The support of the EU has been almost unconditional in all aspects. Millions of refugees have entered, tens of billions of euros have been moved, military material of all kinds has been sent and the process for the opening of accession negotiations, the fastest in history, has also been activated. But this trade friction shows precisely the seams. If Ukraine were to join the EU, its role as a continental breadbasket would take on another dimension. Brussels is making a tailor-made suit, allowing no tariffs, with lax health controls, pushing when in doubt. But there are limits and even the most enthusiastic in the East are saying that they have been exceeded and that alternative solutions are needed.
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