The Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, has ordered the start of an investigation to determine whether the President, Joe Biden, benefited from his son Hunter’s businesses. McCarthy justified his decision by alleging that there are “allegations of abuse of power, obstruction and corruption” in the activities of Hunter Biden, who could be charged by Justice later this month for not paying taxes and having an unlicensed firearm. license.
An eventual impeachment of Biden would not cost the president his position, but it would save McCarthy’s position. The president of the House is under tremendous pressure from the most far-right wing of his party, whose opposition to Biden is total. If McCarthy does not at least open the investigation against the president, it is highly likely that this faction will force his dismissal and the House of Representatives will once again fall into chaos, just as happened in January when McCarthy needed 15 votes to come to office due, precisely, to the opposition of the ultras of his own party. Not since 1860 – on the eve of the United States’ Civil War to abolish slavery – had it taken so many votes for a House leader to be confirmed.
For this reason, McCarthy has made the unusual decision to order Biden’s investigation without first submitting it to a vote by the full House. This is because the centrist Republican sector opposes impeachment, claiming that there are no reasons to carry it out. The investigation will be carried out by three committees, all of them controlled by members of the Freedom Caucus, the far-right wing of the Republican Party.
If the House finally launched an impeachment process, it is not clear that it would go ahead. Firstly, because the Republican majority is very slim – just five seats in a chamber that currently has 434 – and it is possible that some congressmen from that party will vote against. If the impeachment were approved, it would go to the Senate, where Biden’s removal would be debated. The chances of that happening are zero. On the one hand, Democrats have the majority in the Senate and, on the other, several prominent senators – including Republican leader Mitch McConnell – oppose impeachment.
The impeachment is, thus, a movement of the most conservative wing of republicanism, which will mobilize the bases of the party but will probably also mobilize those of the Democrats in view of the 2024 elections, which is what moderate Republicans and members of that party’s Senate they want to avoid.
With the decision to open the investigation, McCarthy also shows once again that he is not in a position of strength to resist his party colleagues to his right. Until this week, the Republican leader had insisted that he would only take that step if it was approved by the full House. Now, with his capitulation, McCarthy makes it clear that that minority of legislators, who represent approximately one-third to one-half of the Republican caucus, has effective control of the party.
But McCarthy also pursues another objective: to ensure that, in exchange for the promise of impeachment, the Republicans raise their opposition to approving the new budget allocations that must pass the House between this week and next. Many Republicans oppose this, which would mean, once again, the closure of the Public Administration, which is almost a tradition in American political culture. The problem is that the closure of the State is, once again, a risky step, which could cause a part of the citizens who have not decided their vote in 2024 to blame the Republicans for inventing a crisis. Among the aid that must be approved is, in addition, a package of 24.1 billion dollars (22.4 billion euros) to Ukraine.