Following a secret ballot held behind closed doors, the Republicans, the majority in the US House of Representatives, chose Steve Scalise on Wednesday October 11 to be their candidate for speaker. His nomination by the party – 113 votes for and 99 against – suggests the possible end of the soap opera of the succession of Kevin McCarthy, stripped of his post last week after internal quarrels, but without certainty.

Aged 58, the elected official from Louisiana, current number two in the Republican hierarchy in the lower house of Congress, has obtained the support of many “heavyweights” of the party. He was preferred to Jim Jordan, who chairs the latter’s Judicial Affairs Committee, is known for his skepticism of US aid to Ukraine and was supported by Donald Trump.

But to officially ascend to the perch, Mr. Scalise must now pass the crucial stage of voting in the plenary session of the House of Representatives, narrowly controlled by his peers – 221 seats to 212 for the Democrats –, probably the most difficult moment of this process. He needs 217 votes to be elected. This vote could be organized in the coming hours.

Uncertain vote in plenary, against a backdrop of divisions among Republicans

It remains to be seen whether the Republican elected officials who supported Jim Jordan’s candidacy will support Steve Scalise in the vote: the rebellion of only eight Republican elected officials was enough last week to cause the fall of Kevin McCarthy, against a backdrop of divisions between moderates and Trumpists in the within the party.

Enough to suggest the potential difficulties that the new speaker could encounter within his own camp. Last January, it also took fifteen rounds of voting for Mr. McCarthy to be nominated – unheard of in the history of the lower house.

The need not to leave the speaker’s seat any further vacant was, however, reinforced by the attack on Israel by Hamas on Saturday, with the lower house having to be able to vote on additional aid to the Jewish state, a historic ally of the United States, as well as approving additional aid to Ukraine, which has been under discussion for weeks.

“It is very, very important that this Congress gets back to work,” said Steve Scalise on Wednesday, who had assured the previous evening, during closed-door discussions, that he would support Jim Jordan if he was chosen.

The Democratic Party, a minority in the House of Representatives, is mainly a spectator of the chaotic negotiations. Tuesday evening, during a speech in support of Israel, the President of the United States nevertheless urged Congress to take, as soon as it was able, “urgent measures” to “finance the imperatives of our partners in National Security”.

Without a speaker, the American Congress cannot vote on a new budget for the federal state either. The current budget expires in a handful of weeks, once again placing the world’s leading economic power in danger of political-financial impasse.