The situation on NATO’s eastern border with Belarus is tense. Following the additional security measures adopted by Lithuania, the Polish government has decided to add another thousand troops to the strong contingent of riot control and anti-terrorist forces that it has been deploying on the border between the two countries since the refugee crisis of 2021. The Deputy Prime Minister Pole, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, already advanced last Wednesday that in response to the presence of militiamen from the Russian Wagner group in Belarus the border would be reinforced. Kaczynski and Deputy Defense Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz suspect that the mercenaries could blend in with groups of migrants to carry out violent incursions into their territory.
“We need much more forces at the border,” Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Wasik told the Pap news agency. According to the Polish border police, 160 migrants tried to cross the Belarusian-Polish border on Saturday, and 147 on Sunday, significantly higher numbers than in 2022.
Meanwhile, security expert Nico Lange warns of new incidents in the border area. Moscow and Minsk have long been “massively” provoking Warsaw. “The fact that Poland benevolently interprets the violation of airspace by a Belarusian helicopter during an exercise near the border as an omission shows prudence,” Lange said. However, in the event of a new violation of airspace, Lange believes that Poland will be forced to act, because if another incident occurs, it can no longer be assumed that it was an “oversight”.
There is a hybrid war between Belarus and Poland. And refugee attacks on Polish agents and soldiers are frequent. So far, 5,000 guards and 2,000 soldiers have been deployed on the border, to which 500 police officers are being added.
After the failed coup in Russia, the Wagner Brigade advanced towards Belarus, from where migrants from Afghanistan, Syria, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Algeria try to reach Poland and, therefore, the EU.
Belarusian security forces have even damaged the fence erected by Latvia to prevent migrants from entering its territory, the Riga border guard announced on Monday. In a statement, it called the incident a “new provocation” and published several images of the incident on Sunday. All those who crossed the border were detained and prevented from entering Latvia illegally, it added.
Latvia has a border of about 172 kilometers with the authoritarian Belarus. The Baltic state accuses the neighboring country and its ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, of bringing refugees from regions in crisis to the border in an organized way. At the end of the summer of 2021, the situation at the external border of the EU worsened. Thousands of people tried to enter Community territory illegally. Warsaw reacted by building a fence and the Riga government declared a state of emergency in the border region, authorizing the border guard to repel fugitives. According to authorities, nearly 5,300 people have been stopped from crossing into the country illegally so far this year.
On the other hand, after the violation of the border by two Belarusian helicopters on Tuesday, the Baltic states are on alert. Minsk had previously announced an exercise in the area, but the helicopters unexpectedly entered the airspace of Poland, which is considering closing borders with the former Soviet republic, which is receiving Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
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