Wagner’s boss was not the protagonist of Saturday’s uprising. He was the tool. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that other instances of power would come to his aid. At least one senior Russian general had prior knowledge of Evgeny Prigozhin’s plans to revolt against Russia’s military leadership.
The New York Times assures that the one who until January was the general in charge of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, close to Wagner’s leader, knew in advance the plans for the mutiny last weekend. The source is the US intelligence services, which believe that Prigozhin had more support within the Armed Forces. For some reason these supports did not step forward.
If General Surovikin was involved in the events of last weekend, it would be the latest sign of the infighting that has raged in Russia’s military leadership since the start of Putin’s war in Ukraine. Depending on the movements that the Russian president makes from now on, it will be possible to see if Putin also believes that General Surovikin helped Prigozhin. And how should he respond for it, taking into account the delicate moment that the Russian front is experiencing with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Judging by his latest statements, Putin seems to intend to blame the mutiny solely on Prigozhin. At least for now.
Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped bolster defenses on the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year. The Wagner uprising and his advance – stopped thanks to an agreement forged by the president of Belarus – have been the starkest challenge to Putin’s power in his 23 years in charge of the country.
In a country where people now go to jail for ‘discrediting’ the army, Prigozhin managed to seize a major Russian military center and launch an armed march on Moscow. That he survived the incident surely responds to Putin’s practical sense, who does not want internal fighting to weaken the Russian front in Ukraine. But the fact that Prigozhin is alive also confirms that he has some kind of support in the military leadership, specifically the sector most dissatisfied with the military performance on the front.
COURSE CHANGE
Putin has always surrounded himself with absolutely loyal commanders, who are not always the most competent. In a frustrating situation like the disappointing progress of the invasion of Ukraine, more voices may emerge within each establishment clamoring for a change of course. Without challenging the president but threatening even with force the position of the people he trusts. General Surovikin and Prigozhin have confronted Shoigu and General Gerasimov over the tactics used in Ukraine, not very successful to date.
Surovikin represents a faction of hardline generals that favors using the most crude tactics against the Ukrainians, just like in Syria. Putin’s inner circle maintains a program of maximums that includes taking Kiev but at the same time an attrition approach in the hope that the solid Ukrainian response and the support he receives from the West will falter in the medium term.
Russia’s president said on Monday he allowed Saturday’s aborted riot to continue for several hours to avoid bloodshed, while the head of the Wagner mercenary group that led the uprising said he never intended to overthrow the government. One of Prigozhin’s main demands was that Shoigu be fired. Surovikin, who commanded the Russian front from autumn until last January, could be the great beneficiary. He now plays a subordinate role or defense leadership. The demotion of General Surovikin was widely seen as a blow to Prigozhin.
If Prigozhin relied on Surovikin’s public support, he was wrong. The general spoke out against the rebellion as soon as it was made public on Friday, in a video that urged Russian troops in Ukraine to hold their positions and not join the uprising: “The enemy is waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country”. He turned his back on her despite the fact that the relationship between the two is very close. Prigozhin collaborated with General Surovikin during Russia’s successful military intervention in Syria and has described him as the most capable commander in the Russian army.
Both Putin and the media have made an effort to point out that the rioters did not find support in the security forces or among the people. Prigozhin was last seen on Saturday night smiling and high-fiving Rostov residents from the back of an SUV: Russians from a midsize Russian capital taking selfies with a coup plotter. Now the intelligence services suggest that Prigozhin, in addition to a certain sympathy on the street, also had support within the system.
Perhaps no one raised Putin’s removal from power, but it seems that there were quite a few people who agreed with Prigozhin that it was necessary to remove Shoigu and General Gerasimov. Although he was forcing the hand of the Kremlin. Precisely because Prigozhin is close to Surovikin, the general was first head of the Russian forces in the Ukraine and later went on to oversee the supply of ammunition and resources to Wagner. As Andrei Soldatov, a journalist and writer specializing in security forces and the Russian army, reminds EL MUNDO, Surovikin is an underestimated figure from outside Russia: “Surovikin is a general who is highly respected by the army, and many generals know him personally because of to his military record.
The Kremlin, asked if it is true that the Russian general knew in advance about the mutiny aborted by mercenaries on Saturday, limited itself to responding that there is “a lot of speculation” after the events. US officials also told the NYT that there are indications that other Russian generals may have also supported Prigozhin’s attempt to forcibly move the Defense Ministry leadership.
There are other signs of conflicting loyalties at the top of the ladder. Another Russian general, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, made his own appeal on video, calling any action against the Russian state a “stab in the back for the country and the president.” But hours later, he appeared in another video, chatting with Prigozhin in the Russian city of Rostov, where Wagner’s fighters seized military installations.
“Russia is much less safe than it was before invading Ukraine,” Timothy Snyder explained after the events of the weekend: “No one was seen in any Russian city spontaneously expressing their personal support for Putin, let alone someone who take some kind of personal risk on behalf of his regime Some Russians are ready to be ruled by a different exploitative regime, they just take it for granted that they will be ruled by whichever gangster has the most guns, and go about their daily lives regardless of who it is that gangster.”
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
