China warned Monday through a Foreign Ministry spokesman that it “stands ready” to respond to such a visit from Nancy Pelosi next month, stressing that the United States “would be responsible for all the serious consequences” that would ensue.

Unusually, Mr. Biden himself noted last week that the US military deemed this visit by Ms. Pelosi, the leader of the House of Representatives and as such one of the highest figures in the US state , was “not a good idea”.

The U.S. government fears that China will not differentiate between the legislative branch of the state and the executive, especially as Beijing sees Washington’s growing support for Taiwan as backing a formal declaration of independence from the island, which China claims as part of its territory.

The controversy is unwelcome for Joe Biden, who could speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the coming days. It also comes as Mr. Xi, China’s most powerful leader in decades, prepares to cement his power at the Communist Party Congress later this year.

Ms Pelosi did not confirm whether she would make the trip, but said she thought it was “important for us to show support for Taiwan”.

The Democratic Island enjoys broad support in Congress and Beijing’s threats have only prompted calls for Ms Pelosi to go ahead with her trip.

“We need Mrs. Pelosi to go to Taiwan and President Biden to make it very clear to President Xi that the Chinese Communist Party can do absolutely nothing to stop her,” said Republican Senator Ben Sasse.

The US government, which considers China its main competitor on the international scene, frequently refers to the need to establish “safeguards” to prevent the differences between the two countries from degenerating into an uncontrollable conflict.

The heads of Chinese and American diplomacy, Wang Yi and Antony Blinken, met in early July in Bali to try to ease relations between the two superpowers.

– Risk of “spectacular” reaction –

Joe Biden faces “a real problem, because if he backs down, if he tries to discourage Nancy Pelosi from going, he will appear weak, bowing to Chinese pressure,” said Robert Sutter of the George Washington University.

The visits of American elected officials to Taiwan have so far aroused various reactions from China “but with this one, it could be serious”, adds this expert. China’s leaders “may think they have to do something spectacular if Pelosi actually arrives in Taipei,” especially ahead of the Communist Party Congress.

A visit from Mrs. Pelosi would not be a first. Republican Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997 when he was Speaker of the House of Representatives. Beijing’s reaction had then been relatively moderate.

Nancy Pelosi has been an outspoken critic of the Beijing regime for years. She befriended the Dalai Lama and in 1991, during a visit to Beijing, she outraged her Chinese hosts by unfurling a banner in Tiananmen Square in memory of the pro-democracy protesters who had been killed there two years ago.

– An American strategy to rethink? –

Faced with the rise of Beijing, the United States supports Taiwan more and more openly. Joe Biden had thus affirmed in May that the United States would intervene militarily to support the island in the event of an invasion by Communist China. He then went back.

The United States has recognized the Chinese regime since 1979, according to the principle of a “one China” whose capital is in Beijing. They do not officially recognize Taiwan, while supporting the island militarily.

During a visit to Taipei in March, Donald Trump’s former US diplomat, Mike Pompeo, called on the United States to recognize Taiwan as a “free and sovereign country”, stressing that it was “the recognition of an indubitable and already existing reality”.

But for former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking at a conference in Aspen, Colorado, the “one China” principle helped contain tensions with Beijing for decades.