For fear of a serious supply crisis, administration, households and companies should save energy. But how effective are the efforts? The graphics from ntv.de provide an overview of the current supply situation and consumption in Germany.
Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine has shocked the world – in many ways. A good six months after the start of the war, however, the political discussion in Germany revolves almost exclusively around one topic: concerns about an energy crisis. On the one hand, the federal government promises aid packages and at the same time relies on austerity programs. Both are probably necessary: ??The alarm level of the “gas emergency plan” has been in effect since June 23 – Germany is preparing for an emergency.
So what about the gas and electricity supply in Germany? In several graphics, including current data from the Federal Network Agency, this article gives a quick overview of the situation.
Point one: the gas supply. Since Russia, previously Germany’s most important supplier of natural gas, left the country, there has been concern that there could be a shortage in winter. The declared goal of the federal government – and new legal requirement – was therefore that the German gas storage tanks should be at least 95 percent full by autumn in order to be prepared for the winter.
That seems to be working: even before the 1 November deadline, German gas storage facilities are on average fuller than in previous years, as the chart above shows. According to the Federal Network Agency, the supply should last for around two winter months; it must therefore continue to be procured on the world market. Even at the start of the heating period in early October, significantly more gas is being injected than is withdrawn (see graphic below).
But the ratio is expected to reverse soon as temperatures continue to drop and households and businesses turn up the heat more often. Depending on how long and frosty the winter is, the supply situation will remain tense next year and could even get worse.
The head of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, has therefore repeatedly called on citizens to make greater efforts to save. It is true that the monthly average gas consumption throughout Germany was below the average of previous years. According to the Federal Network Agency, however, the savings are not yet sufficient to rule out an impending gas shortage. The authority sets a savings target of at least 20 percent compared to the long-term average in order to get through the winter relaxed.
Private households in particular are now in demand, because experience has shown that their share of total consumption increases in the winter months. During the summer months, however, the savings were mainly due to industrial customers, as can be seen from the data from the Federal Network Agency. The gas requirements of industrial customers as well as household and commercial customers can be called up separately via the drop-down menu in all consumption graphics.
The weekly consumption data, which are updated every Thursday, draw a very similar but somewhat more up-to-date trend picture. A cold snap in September, for example, made itself felt here – in the corresponding week gas consumption was slightly above the average of previous years.
However, the Federal Network Agency itself points out that the consumption data are provisional values ??that may be corrected retroactively if necessary. It is also important that only the consumption of large or industrial customers can actually be measured continuously. The consumption of smaller companies and households, on the other hand, is calculated on the basis of the total consumption quantities.
But there is not only potential for savings in heating, which should help Germany through the crisis. The federal and state governments also take electricity requirements into account in their energy-saving programs.
One reason: Especially in hours and on days when little energy can be generated from sun and wind (experts speak of a “dark doldrums” in extreme cases), electricity production with natural gas runs at full speed. This can be seen from the graphic, which shows the current electricity mix for the current week and the previous week.
Politicians’ energy-saving programs sometimes provide for unusual and far-reaching measures. According to the motto “Every kilowatt hour counts”, cities, for example, leave their sights in the dark at night. Private pools are no longer allowed to be heated, and billboards are no longer allowed to be illuminated. If the message gets through and the population goes along with a private savings program at home, the savings should also be reflected in the Federal Network Agency’s electricity market data.
Overall, the federal government is optimistic about the winter: the gas supply in Germany is considered secure for the time being. And this despite the fact that Russia stopped its pipeline deliveries in the summer, first partially and finally completely.
Germany now obtains its natural gas mainly via pipelines from Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway. In addition, the construction of our own liquid gas terminals (LNG terminals) is to be pushed ahead in order to develop alternative sources and ensure long-term energy supply.
However, the procurement of the coveted raw material has its price. After the war began, wholesale prices for natural gas had literally exploded. The gas suppliers and companies in the energy-intensive sectors are the first to notice this. Consumers only receive the bill with a significant delay – also due to ongoing contracts.
The gas price analysis by BDEW, the energy industry association, shows what customers need to be prepared for. As early as September, the evaluation indicated that the average price per kilowatt hour for a model household had more than doubled in the current year compared to 2021.
The federal government wants to partially offset the additional burden on households with an aid package. The savings incentive should still remain large – and that is also intended.
