Chancellor Scholz makes a decision in the dispute over the nuclear phase-out. But his word of power will not result in electricity prices falling. In the best-case scenario, they rise less sharply – if at all.
Irrespective of whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s word of power on nuclear power defuses the quarrel between the Greens and the FDP or even fuels it: the electricity for Germany’s households and companies will not become cheaper as a result of the nuclear phase-out, which has been postponed to mid-April 2023. Energy prices – especially in Germany – are already higher than they have been in recent years. And currently the three nuclear power plants, which are allowed to continue operation for three and a half months, are already connected to the grid.
Perhaps the prices for electricity will rise less sharply thanks to Scholz’s word of power. Perhaps that will also dampen the rise in the price of gas, which will have to be used less frequently in the first 14 weeks of next year as a result of the decision. Maybe. But there is no real easing of the energy crisis as a result of the Chancellor’s decision.
Due to the delay in phasing out nuclear power by a few weeks, the planning security that the nuclear power plant operators have repeatedly demanded is not given. The consequence: the fuel rods essential for nuclear power are not replaced but continue to be burned. At the end of the cycle, however, the fuel rods are significantly less effective than new tubes. This is why the electricity production that a nuclear power plant feeds into the grid is falling.
In addition, it is not certain whether the full volume of nuclear power will end up with German consumers. Because a large number of French nuclear reactors are currently in need of maintenance and are therefore not connected to the grid, the country has become an energy importer. Germany and France have agreed to help each other in the energy crisis. Germany therefore receives gas supplies from France. In return, there is electricity for the neighboring country from German power plants – presumably a large part of the supplies come from German nuclear power plants.
After all, if the experts are right, a blackout – i.e. a complete power failure – will be avoided in the coming months. If anything, there would be a brownout – a drop in voltage in the power grid, which could result in regional restrictions.
The situation will certainly look different in the winter after next. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the winter of 2023 could be significantly tougher for people and companies in Germany. Due to its strong industrial production, the country would feel the energy crisis more clearly than others. The remaining nuclear power plants will then be off the grid.
The Chancellor’s announcement, packaged as a word of power, is therefore not a boom, but rather a boom. Symbolism that should accommodate the decision of the Green Party Congress as well as the efforts of the FDP not to sink into insignificance. That doesn’t help in the long run. If the winter gets cold and energy becomes even scarcer, this may even reignite the discussion about postponing it again.
