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The US economy is booming: consumer spending is rising, companies are investing more and exports are growing. In second quarter, growth was 4.1 percent for record-breaking. This is twice as high as in three months before. The thrust has political implications that extend to Europe.
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The development is all more astonishing because upturn, as economists define it, has now lasted for nine years and would have to end in economic cycle. US president Donald Trump leaves no doubt about who is responsible for ongoing upswing: he himself. But is that true, too?
His critics deny it almost as loudly. The New York Times pointed out that, unlike Trump, it was by no means a historical leap forward. After all, growth under Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, was over four percent in several quarters. In third quarter of 2014, it even amounted to 5.3 percent. Or skeptics pointed out that se were effects that will not be repeated in this form in future. This includes, for example, increase in orders from foreign companies that were to be covered before introduction of new duties. This had contributed to increase in exports. An analysis by liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research concludes that re is no real Trump effect yet. Economists had model calculations by continuing trends in economic activity and labor market that had already begun before Trump’s election.
Our country is doing great. Best financial numbers on planet. Great to have USA winning again!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 24, 2018
Obama’s followers always defend ir president against accusation that he is responsible for slow pace of recovery after 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession. Now Trump’s opponents deny that he has something to do with economic success. Neir one nor or is completely true. The idea that president is also chief economic captain has gained importance under Bill Clinton. The reminder “It’s economy, stupid”, which he hung up in his campaign office, became legendary. Under his presidency, US economy remained on course for ten years – longest period of its history to date. At that time, driving force was globalization, which Clinton propagated and which initially opened up new markets for US companies. This later proved to be a boomerang, when US corporations increasingly moved ir production abroad in competition with low-wage countries. Ultimately, Trumps election is a consequence of this policy.
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Now, all that Trump, who wants to undo globalization, will break Clinton’s record. He owes this above all to his tax reform, which is now starting to work slowly. Companies benefit from radical reduction in tax rate from over 35 percent to 21 percent. More modestly, tax concessions apply to mass of workers. Neverless, many Americans seem to have felt more wealthy. Spending on cars, clothing and restaurant visits rose by four percent in spring – as strong as in four years.
