Never in the past 30 years have so many people in Germany assumed that the economic situation in this country would deteriorate. According to the trend barometer, more than half expect Russia to allow the gas tap.
Corona pandemic, banking crisis, dotcom bubble – no economic crisis has hit the mood of the Germans as much as the consequences of the Ukraine war. 80 percent of Germans now expect economic conditions in Germany to deteriorate. This is shown by the current RTL/ntv trend barometer. It is the worst value since the regular survey began in 1991. At the moment, only 9 percent of those surveyed expect the economic situation to improve.
In the previous week, 75 percent of the participants had assumed that things would get worse. In January, i.e. before the start of the war, only 51 percent believed in this, compared with 23 percent in an improvement.
At present, 55 percent, more than half of Germans, assume that Russia will stop supplying gas to Germany in the next few months. Economists warn of a deep recession in this case.
The consumer mood is correspondingly in the basement. The barometer of the GfK market researchers also reached a record low in July. Minus 27.4 points meant the lowest value since the beginning of the all-German survey, which also started in 1991. As a result of the war and disrupted supply chains, energy and food prices continue to rise, weighing on consumer sentiment.
According to an Allianz survey, high inflation is currently the biggest concern of Germans. That fear could only get worse. For the next twelve months, private households are expecting a general price increase of 7.5 percent, as current data from the Bundesbank show. This is also a high value, but this survey has only been carried out since 2019.
Actual inflation in June was 7.6 percent, according to preliminary data. This means that the prices for goods and services rose less sharply than expected and less sharply than in the previous month compared to the previous year.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from July 5 to 11, 2022. Database: 2503 or 1004 (gas deliveries) respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 2.5 or 3 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.
