In just a few days, at the latest in early March, and without a doubt before Easter. The Government is about to close the long-awaited pension reform, a vital element to receive the next disbursement of European funds, reaching an agreement between social agents, political partners and community institutions. This was stated this Monday by the Minister of Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, in Brussels, where he has traveled for the third time in a few weeks to continue shaping the negotiation.
“We are working so that we can do it this month, the first days [of March]… we are very close to being able to close the process (…) There are very few fringes left, in each interaction we are closer to understanding the remaining points “, said the minister after meeting with the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni.
The operation is very complex. It is not just about the reform itself, which must overcome the misgivings of Unidas Podemos, but also of government partners such as ERC and Bildu due to the change in the system for calculating the years of contribution. Rather, for this fourth disbursement of 10,000 million euros, it is necessary for the European Commission to carry out and approve an in-depth evaluation of the system, of its sustainability. In Brussels they believe that it will be necessary to expand the contribution bases, but also to extend beyond 2032 the adjustment mechanism that the Government already legislated in 2021 to alleviate the elimination of the sustainability factor of pensions, which was in the previous one and the one itself PP ended up discarding.
“It is missing that it is a text of more than 120 pages, with more elements than the previous ones and that we are going detail by detail so that they fully understand everything. It is a far-reaching reform, very substantive measures but that require the understanding of each clause and the analysis that accompanies them”, explained the minister about why he is late on the scheduled dates, which were merely indicative but put a lot of pressure on all parties. “We are seeing one by one and that takes time, and the Commission is working on many issues, not only on pensions, and they need their time,” Escrivá said.
For weeks, the feeling is that the Government has an easier understanding with Brussels than with its partners, those inside and outside the Executive. Asked about it, and if in his optimism in the face of having an immediate agreement, and “without a doubt before Easter”, the minister has been forceful. “I think so, there will be an agreement. We are very close, yes. I honestly say it, if not, I would not say it. Really, there is a vision that it is an opportunity to leave a very solid system with sufficient pensions and very well financed, sustainable and more equitable. The progress in the system is so substantial that I am convinced that there will be an agreement with a lot of support,” he said. “There will be an agreement before Easter, rest assured. The interactions are so complicated that perhaps a few more days but what is at stake justifies it,” he promised.
Even though the retouching of the system for calculating years of contribution is untouchable, no matter how controversial it may be in the left-wing formations in Parliament. “Yes, it is part of the package, yes. We believe, we have always believed that we have to achieve a more equitable system that takes into account those people who have more volatile careers, for whom the last few years are not the best. Ways have to be found to discount years. A change in a system that is not linear careers, from less to more, which were traditional. For 30% of people who retire, their last 15 years are not better, the Toledo Pact made us see that a solution must be found and this system is more equitable”, he told the media before returning to Madrid.
Brussels has some reservations about long-term sustainability. He knows the estimates of analysts who speak of holes of up to 54,000 million by 2050, but the minister believes that it is absurd to see it in those terms and assures that the way to negotiate is another, not with projections. And that the agreement on that point is also close.
“We are there, converging opinions on this. If we are so wrong in making forecasts to one or two, imagine 30 years from now. I have dedicated myself to this in my professional life. Trying to agree now on what is an estimate for 2050. .. You don’t have to compete with forecasts, there are formulas in the design of fiscal and sustainability rules to contemplate these situations.No one would close an agreement today on forecasts even from the best experts for 2050, because look at the pandemic, the income of the latter years of Social Security, which have grown 9% due to the emergency of the underground economy. Surprises can be good or bad. When discussing these things at a technical level among specialists for sustainability tools, it is done in another way”, he has settled.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project