The order has worked itself out over decades. First the cars will get a new system, the trucks will follow much later. If any. The reasons are varied. The logistics industry takes a very close look at the expenses and only packs items into the trucks that are really necessary. In addition, the running times of the trucks are many times longer than those of an automobile. So it takes longer before a new technology finds its way onto the road. In addition, the vulnerability and costs increase with the level of technology installed. A no-go for the transport company. But now priorities are shifting, and trucks are catching up with autonomous driving. Daimler Trucks wants to put the first Level 4 robo-transporters on the road before the end of the decade and is therefore working flat out with Torc Robotics and Waymo on the autonomous trucks that will commute from depot to depot on the motorway.
“Autonomous trucking has long been a sideshow for auto-focused tech companies like Waymo and Aurora. In the meantime, the opinion has prevailed that self-driving trucks offer a significantly greater opportunity compared to passenger transport. It is the killer application of autonomous driving technology and the ultimate turning point for the entire truck industry,” says a study by the management consultancy Berylls, which deals with robo-trucks as a disruptive technology and the profitable business models.
The shift from sideline technology to development priority has tangible reasons. A driving force behind robo-trucks is the looming shortage of drivers. In the US alone there is currently a shortage of 80,000 helmsmen, a number that could double by the end of the decade. In Europe it doesn’t look much different. Companies are also desperately looking for “kings of the country road”. Understaffing has fatal consequences: supply chains are severed, goods are missing and supermarket shelves are empty. The economic damage would be immense. It is also clear that rail transport cannot close this gap and capacities remain open.
The driver shortage has a whole rat tail of consequences. In order to close the supply gap, new truckers are needed quickly. However, they are not as experienced as the old hands and therefore there is a greater chance that they will make mishaps. For example when ranking. In addition to the body damage, the repair of the truck tears a deep hole in the budget. Every minute that a van is parked costs money, a lot of money. Intermediate steps that lead to autonomous driving are therefore also helpful. The supplier ZF, which wants to have its Level 4 robotic trucks completed by around 2028, is doing this. These include the electromechanical steering, which helps to keep the 40-ton truck on track, an emergency brake assistant and a system that supports the driver when maneuvering and docking at the charging station before the technology takes over this task automatically in a clearly defined environment.
These developments towards autonomous driving cost money and only make sense if the effort pays off – in the truest sense of the word. The driver is the most expensive element in the value chain. The Berylls analysts assume that by 2025 the human factor will already account for 40 percent of a truck’s operating costs. Even ahead of the fuel (30 percent). According to the American Truck Research Institute (ATRI), drivers are responsible for 90 percent of truck accidents and this has pushed up insurance costs by an average of 4.1 percent per year over the past decade. Not to mention the aforementioned loss of earnings from the vehicle. If the robo-pilot takes over the wheel, the truck drives more smoothly, consumes less fuel, there is less wear and tear and insurance costs are also reduced. According to Berylls calculations, if a mile costs $2.10 in the middle of the decade, an autonomous truck would be 0.95 cents cheaper.
A calculation that not only sparkles among logistics operators, but also among truck manufacturers, who sense good business with the autonomous vehicles. However, some manufacturers will fight for the worthwhile cake and there is a risk of tough competition. Especially since the transport companies also count every cent twice when it comes to autonomous driving and opt for the cheapest solution. The manufacturers of the robo-trucks must therefore pay close attention to which systems are desired by the customer and which are not, so as not to waste money unnecessarily on technologies that are not desired at all. The Americans then like to talk about over-engineering. So too much of a good thing can develop into a boomerang.
