Summer will give it its all again in the next few days: up to 35 degrees Celsius are possible again, especially in the east. This is followed by milder weather and rainier days. ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander takes a first look at the rest of the month. Heat, storms and drought will probably remain as themes.
ntv: The hot summer hardly seems to want to end. Last heavy thunderstorms and now the air is already boiling again. How long will it stay this hot and muggy?
Björn Alexander: Until Friday, we will remain in many regions within the sphere of influence of the air, which sometimes appears almost tropical and is sometimes prone to thunderstorms and severe weather. The weekend will be much more relaxed. Because summer goes diving.
Is that the big farewell for the summer of 2022?
According to the current status, it could also get hot again in the last third of the month up to the end of the month. But all in all, midsummer is struggling with shorter days and a dwindling power of the sun. In other words: our weather is slowly shifting towards late summer with September in focus. This can also be seen from the fact that the dog days – the usually hottest time of the year – last until August 23rd. After that, the heat first becomes less violent and then more and more tame.
What about the drought issue? Can we hope for an end to the drought?
In the next few days, repeated thunderstorms and heavy rain are on the agenda of the weather computer. And it is – as was the case recently – these sometimes slow-moving thunderstorm complexes that are likely to be accompanied by heavy rain. Due to the sometimes very dry soil, which cannot convert the water so quickly, there is still a risk of flooding. This means that drought issues such as the risk of forest fires are likely to take a back seat in the coming days.
And what about the river gauges?
At least for the larger rivers and streams, such summer heavy rain events are often just a drop in the ocean. So we shouldn’t expect any big gains here – even if flooding or high water levels are conceivable on smaller rivers and streams due to the severe thunderstorms. What we need for sustainable relaxation on the Rhine, Danube or Oder are permanent rain situations. The best thing is a few weeks of steady rain. That would also help the floors.
But such a rain is not in sight, is it?
Unfortunately not. At least the monthly forecasts of the American weather service NOAA rate September and October 2022 as wet to wet on average. In any case, a slight relaxation would be conceivable.
Key word: weather change. How is it going in the coming days?
To say it straight away: The weather models have very different ideas about how possible storms are distributed across Germany. At the current time, i.e. around 48 hours before the event, we rarely experience such a different forecast situation.
How can you tell?
Many of us should notice this when looking at the weather app, for example, which usually makes relatively big jumps from day to day. Basically, however, it can be said that the current trends of the various weather computers tend to underestimate the amount of rain. This was also the case on Monday, for example, when frequent and sometimes very intense thunderstorms passed through the north-eastern half, which did not reflect the majority of the forecasts in this form.
What is the most likely severe weather timetable for Germany?
Now there are occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms in the north and on Wednesday, especially from the Upper Rhine to the North Sea. Then the two main thunderstorm and severe weather days follow.
What dangers do we have to be prepared for?
On Thursday, quite widespread intense thunderstorms with severe weather potential are possible, which then tend to concentrate on the south and east on Friday. The main danger comes from heavy rain, which can be heavy at times, with the potential for flooding. However, hail and squalls cannot be ruled out either. The engine of the whole thing is, on the one hand, the muggy and accordingly energetic air, which is led to Germany on the front side of low “Karin”, before the cold front will then move up. A tricky mix.
How sweaty does it get – in other words: What temperatures can we expect?
Wednesday and Thursday are the preliminary high points of the heat. Then peaks of up to 35 degrees are possible again in the eastern half, while it is generally becoming more and more humid and therefore muggy. Especially in combination with the heat in the east a very strenuous situation, which is partly combined with tropical nights and only relaxes on Saturday. Meanwhile, it is less heated in the west, where the 30-degree mark will hardly play a role from Wednesday.
What will the weather bring us this weekend?
Last thunderstorms in the south on Saturday, but otherwise more sun and temperatures to air and breathe deeply. During the day with locally windy 18 to 25 degrees, before it mostly cools down to 16 to 9 degrees on Sunday night.
And on Sunday?
More clouds with some rain moving through in the north and northwest. Meanwhile, the rest of the country is nicer, mostly dry and generally still rather fresh with 19 to 26 degrees.
When will summer hit the tube again?
Monday something with summer light at 20 to almost 27 degrees. Tuesday will then get warmer and warmer, so that by Wednesday at the latest, the heat mark of 30 degrees will be reached or exceeded again. Currently the peaks are in the range of 30 to 33 degrees. And luckily that’s less intense than the temperatures we’ve experienced in the last few weeks.
(This article was first published on Tuesday, August 16, 2022.)
