March comes like February went: freezing cold. It could stay that way for a long time. Rain, snow and ice are on the way. So far, only a few weather computers are counting on a blissful spring awakening.
ntv.de: Meteorologically, spring also began in March – when does the weather start in Lenz?
Björn Alexander: That could be a pretty tough affair this year. Because our solar high “Hazal” is now shifting further towards the North Atlantic and Iceland. This in turn opens up a northerly flow that sends air from polar latitudes to Germany via Scandinavia. Mixed with rain at first at the weekend – next week at the latest, however, snow will fall again down to lower altitudes.
Do we have to reckon with clearing snow and ice again?
The latter is pretty safe. The onset of late winter with deep, wet and cold polar air is still accompanied by night frost with the corresponding smoothness.
How about the snow?
The weather computers are still at odds with the amount of snow. It is also quite certain that even in the lowlands it can become temporarily white due to snow or sleet. But larger amounts of snow are also part of many forecasts.
What would that mean?
In the lowlands, 10 to 20 centimeters would be conceivable in some cases – even significantly more in the mountains. A real March winter, which – if there is actually enough snow to cover the whole area again – could be accompanied by bitterly cold nights below minus 5 or even below minus 10 degrees.
With the uncertain forecasts: are there also warmer calculations?
There are, but they are in the minority. Only towards the end of next week do some of the trends see a softening from the West and Southwest. A solution that seems quite plausible, but which could come around the corner with another meteorological grab bag.
Why?
A borderline weather situation would thus be conceivable. Depending on where and how the possible air mass limit comes to rest, a number of weather phenomena are conceivable. From more snow to freezing rain to flawless continuous rain – or even a quick change to the relaxed spring awakening. An exciting development, which of course also sets the course for the sustainable awakening of spring. But the fact is one way or another: March 2023 has a good chance of being one of the coolest March months in recent years.
When was the last time it was this cold in March?
In relation to the last 20 years, March 2013 (mean temperature of 0.2 degrees) and March 2006 (about 1.5 degrees) were exceptionally cold. March 2018 (2.4 degrees) and March 2005 (3.6 degrees) were rather cold. By the way, around 4.5 degrees would be normal compared to the last 30 years. The old climate average from the period 1961-1990 is around 3.5 degrees.
While we’re on the subject of statistics: How should winter 2022/2023 be classified?
With an average temperature of a good 2.9 degrees, the winter was far too warm – despite the ice-cold phase in December 2022, for example. This is partly due to the extremely mild phase that overtook us around the turn of the year until mid-January. Most of the highest temperatures of the entire winter were reported during this phase.
Where are the winter hotspots?
In the south of our country. First and foremost are Wielenbach in Bavaria with 20.8 degrees, as well as Müllheim and Ohlsbach, both in Baden-Württemberg, with 20.3 degrees. All reported on December 31, 2022. The only outlier in the top list with over 20 degrees outside of this warm phase is Garmisch-Partenkirchen with 20.1 degrees on February 18, 2023.
What about precipitation?
Averaged over the whole of Germany, the rain balance is balanced at around 180 liters per square meter, which corresponds exactly to the long-term average. Regionally, however, the differences were quite large. The southwest and the south generated a below-average rainfall balance, while it was otherwise normal or significantly too wet.
Where did it fall the most, where was it the driest?
The wettest place was Meinerzhagen-Redlendorf in North Rhine-Westphalia with almost 530 liters per square meter. On the other hand, less than 60 liters fell in Frankenthal-Studernheim, in Alzey – both in Rhineland-Palatinate – and in Vogtsburg-Bischoffingen in Baden-Württemberg.
What does the solar balance say?
Around 160 to 170 hours of sunshine. This roughly corresponds to the long-term average. So rather inconspicuous. The south – similar to the lack of precipitation – was able to catch the most sun. The winter of 2022/23 was the grayest with just over 90 hours of sunshine in Laage in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in Glücksburg-Meierwik in Schleswig-Holstein.
From looking back to looking forward to the weekend. What prospects await us?
Saturday and Sunday will be generally changeable and cold and wet with sleet and snow showers, some of which will descend to lower altitudes – sometimes with a risk of ice. In the direction of the low mountain range, fresh snow can also make it slippery in places. A sometimes brisk to stormy wind will blow, especially in the north and east and in the vicinity of showers. Only in the south is it longer on Saturday.
At what temperatures?
On Saturday the values ??will drop to 0 to 8 degrees. Sunday will be fresher again with a maximum of minus 2 to plus 7 degrees. The coldest corner is the Ore Mountains, it is mildest on the Upper Rhine.
And next week?
It goes on late winter. Sleet or snow expected on Monday. It snows more heavily in the south and south-east, with a corresponding order situation for winter services. But also in the rest of the country, the road maintenance departments have to be prepared to work overtime simply because of the combination of precipitation, frosty nights and the danger of freezing wetness. In addition, the temperatures in the lower elevations reach a slight plus, up to 7 degrees in the south-west. The mountains meanwhile move in the area around the freezing point.
