The effect of the Covid-19 epidemic on migratory movements through France has not dissipated. “Health crisis and development of teleworking: more departures from the poles of major cities and the Paris area”, the study published Thursday, March 16 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) reveals the persistence, until 2022, population movements from the heart of urban centers to less dense areas.
To carry out this work, the statistical institute relied on two sources: changes of address (definitive forwarding contracts from La Poste) and data from the vehicle directory (gray cards).
First observation: due to the health crisis, migratory flows to the already very attractive regions, the Atlantic arc (Brittany, New-Aquitaine) and the south of the country (Occitanie, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur), are accentuated.
In Corsica and Occitania, the movement continues to grow, including in 2022. Brittany remains the most attractive region: in 2021, measured arrivals there are around twice as many as departures, but this attractiveness which, in the aftermath of the crisis, had been very strong, began to fade in 2022.
On the other hand, the migratory balance is negative in the Grand-Est, Hauts-de-France and especially in Ile-de-France where, in 2022, 35 arrivals of households from other regions were recorded for 100 departures. . “This ratio is recovering slightly compared to 2021 (31 arrivals for 100 departures), but remains significantly lower than that of pre-crisis (43 arrivals for 100 departures)”, notes INSEE.
Development “not insignificant”
Even before the health crisis, Ile-de-France recorded a negative net migration of 100,000 people, but this “has probably increased by a few tens of thousands of people”, underlines Isabelle Kabla-Langlois, regional director Ile-de-France from INSEE and co-author of the study. “We cannot speak of an urban exodus”, she continues, but this development, which will have to be confirmed by the results of the next census, expected in 2023, “is not insignificant”.
Beyond Paris, the metropolises as a whole are the big losers of these migratory movements. Agglomerations of more than 700,000 inhabitants, which, before the epidemic, mostly showed a positive net migration, are also experiencing “a post-crisis trend” of declining attractiveness.
Two types of migratory flows coexist: the first takes place within large metropolises, from the center to their suburbs, particularly in the Paris region.
Above all, increasing population flows are leaving the metropolises in the direction of medium-sized and small towns. The dynamic is the same in the countryside: “inflows” were significantly higher than “outflows” in these territories, much more in 2022 than in 2019, when “surplus migration tended to dry up before the pandemic”. These are all developments that INSEE attributes in particular “to the new possibilities offered by teleworking”.
