VANCOUVER—With all hands on deck on Parliament Hill to keep Canada/U.S. relations on as even a keel as possible, the last thing Justin Trudeau needs is a political storm in British Columbia. With the province heading to the polls this spring, there are clouds on the horizon.
Donald Trump’s presidential victory has already forced the Liberal government to tweak — to use a word that is currently in fashion in political circles — its agenda. The aftershocks of the American election will continue to be felt on Parliament Hill for the balance of the Liberal mandate.
Unexpected uncertainty on the trade and refugee fronts to name just those two has propelled the Canada/U.S. file to the top of the pile. It is testimony to the amount of political energy that has been diverted to dealing with the new Washington reality that there is still no date officially set for the federal budget.
Somewhat lost in the Trump brouhaha is the upcoming first real test of Trudeau’s high-wire act on climate change and energy development.
A Liberal government in Ottawa would not usually be adverse to the election of a New Democrat government in B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s Liberals and their federal counterparts are ultimately little more than cousins twice removed.
With some notable Prairie exceptions, the federal Liberals have tended to be the net beneficiaries of the rise and subsequent decline in popularity of provincial NDP governments.
After Bob Rae’s tenure at Queen’s Park, the federal NDP was shut out of Ontario. More recently, the fall of Nova Scotia’s one-term New Democrat government was soon followed by the loss of the party’s federal seats in that province. After a historical breakthrough in Alberta, heartbreak at the national level ensued.
But Trudeau has gambled an uncommon amount of political capital on premier Clark. A Liberal defeat on May 9 in B.C. would come at a significant loss to his federal government.
The federal approval of controversial Clark-supported energy developments such as the Site C hydro dam and Petronas’ LNG project has alienated many of Trudeau’s 2015 B.C. supporters. More than a few feel betrayed by the prime minister.
Those moves did help secure the province’s approval of Kinder-Morgan’s pipeline expansion plan.
Trudeau could count on no such support from an NDP government. It would align with the many constituencies that are still determined to block the pipeline.
That could have a domino effect on the already shaky fortunes of Alberta’s New Democrat government.
Premier Rachel Notley needs the Kinder-Morgan project to be on track to at least have a shot at re-election in 2019. Trudeau, in turn, needs Notley to have that shot or else risk having his carbon-pricing policy turn into a national apple of discord on the eve of his own re-election campaign.
With a bit more than two months to go to the provincial vote, a Mainstreet poll published a few days ago showed the NDP and the Liberals tied at 37 per cent in voting intentions. Clark has beaten longer odds. The New Democrats had a double-digit lead on her party at the start of the last election campaign.
She has an approval rating that her Ontario colleague Kathleen Wynne — who routinely finishes last on the provincial popularity scoreboard — can only envy. Her NDP rival has to worry about bleeding support to the Green party.
But large swings in voting intentions over the short period of a campaign have become familiar features of Canada’s electoral dynamics with the chips not always falling where they were expected. As Trudeau’s victory demonstrated, it is a foolish incumbent that counts on a split in the opposition vote to prevail.
The B.C. Liberals are asking for a fifth consecutive mandate. Two decades is a long time for a party to be in power — even under two leaders.
This week, Clark brought in the latest of a series of balanced budgets. But if balanced budgets were key to re-election, Stephen Harper would still be prime minister.
If you ask B.C. insiders who are otherwise sympathetic to Clark’s Liberals whether they are confident of her re-election, the answer is universally equivocal. Harper’s uninspiring last campaign is still fresh in many of their minds. It was a textbook example of the perils of running on an unambitious platform.
Not all provincial elections are must-watch events nationally. Most of British Columbia’s past campaigns have not fallen in that category. This one will.
Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
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