CLEVELAND, Ohio – How often do the results at the Academy Awards disappoint? Let’s look at recent history.
There was the #OscarsSoWhite controversy last year. There was outrage over a “Selma” being snubbed a few major categories in 2015. “Argo” (2013) seems less like a Best Picture winner these days, and we’re still wondering what Casinomaxi made “The King’s Speech” so award-worthy.
This year we don’t have to worry about the Oscars being “so white.” And we may even get a record-setting achievement for “La La Land.”
Still, what should happen isn’t necessarily what will. Here’s how we see Sunday night playing out and how we would change things around.
Best Picture
- La La Land
- Moonlight
- Manchester by the Sea
- Fences
- Arrival
- Lion
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- Hacksaw Ridge
Will win: “La La Land.” It’s the kind of movie Hollywood can get behind, because it speaks to the idea of pursuing your dream in the industry.
Should win: Looking at the weight, emotional power and impact of these films, “Moonlight” is a no-brainer as the best of the bunch. Director Barry Jenkins accomplishes something rare, creating a human movie that has a lot to do with race and sexuality, but carries universal messages and power.
What’s missing: I get why “Silence” wasn’t nominated, as Martin Scorsese’s film is very complex. But it’s better than half the movies here.
Best Director
- Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
- Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
- Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
- Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
- Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Will win: Damien Chazelle. This is closer than some people think. Voters have divided Best Picture and Director the past three years and win for Jenkins would make him the first African American to win this award.
Should win: See above about Barry Jenkins’ stunning accomplishments in “Moonlight.”
Who’s missing: It’s hard bringing the best out of children, but Luke Davies pulls it off in “Lion.” Also, Denzel Washington’s commitment to August Wilson’s source material in “Fences” is admirable.
Best Actor
- Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
- Denzel Washington, “Fences”
- Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
- Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
- Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Will win: Momentum is a big deal when it comes to the Academy Awards and Denzel Washington has it.
Should win: Casey Affleck breaks your heart in “Manchester by the Sea” with a master-class in acting that might be the best overall performance of the year.
Who’s missing: I much prefer Andrew Garfield’s performance in “Silence” over “Hacksaw Ridge,” while Ryan Reynolds carries “Deadpool” in all its comedic glory.
Best Actress
- Emma Stone, “La La Land”
- Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
- Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
- Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
- Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Will win: Emma Stone will follow a trend of young actresses getting wins in Best Picture nominees (See: Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence and Brie Larson).
Should win: Ruth Negga deserves this honor for her powerful performance in “Loving.”
Who’s missing: There was talk of Amy Adams finally getting a win for “Arrival.” What the heck happened? And where’s Annette Bening for “20th Century Women?”
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
- Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
- Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
- Dev Patel, “Lion”
- Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Will win: Ali. He’s won most precursors and should take this home.
Should win: This is pretty cut and dry. Ali makes such a huge impact in “Moonlight” in such a brief time. His performance stays with you.
Who’s missing: Aaron Taylor-Johnson has an argument over Shannon for “Nocturnal Animals,” while the Academy continues to snub Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”).
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis, “Fences”
- Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
- Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
- Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
- Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Will win: If you had to put your money on any win this Sunday, it should go on Davis. She’s won everything and is long overdue.
Should win: Davis earns this honor for one tearful seen in “Fences” that will knock you off your feet.
Who’s missing: I preferred Janelle Monae in “Hidden Figures” over Spencer and thought Greta Gerwig was far more impressive in “20th Century Women” than Kidman was in “Lion.”
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