Elisabeth Borne remains Emmanuel Macron’s “best choice” for Matignon. This is the main lesson of a Cluster 17 survey for Le Point. While rumors of a reshuffle have been buzzing for months and the Prime Minister is desperately looking for a new chief of staff after the departure of the previous one, Aurélien Rousseau, Élisabeth Borne retains popularity with a majority of French people. Not out of adherence to his political project or to his person but out of hostility to potential replacements, however, notes the study. Overall, only 22% of respondents favor it.
In detail, 41% of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in 2022 are in favor of keeping him and 30% are in favor of promoting the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire. All the other contenders come well behind these two political figures – Gérald Darmanin (5%), Julien Denormandie (4%), Gérard Larcher (2%), Gabriel Attal (9%), Catherine Vautrin (2%), Manuel Valls ( 4%) and Laurent Wauquiez (2%).
Thanks to the particular method of Cluster 17, which segments the electorate into sixteen “clusters” representing all political and ideological affinities, this poll highlights another interesting fact: Nicolas Sarkozy’s traditional electorate is more supportive of the idea of ??an LR-RN coalition than that of a coalition bringing together LR and the current majority! The idea of ??a “government pact”, doggedly defended by Nicolas Sarkozy, is of little interest to the four “clusters” which bring together the bulk of the historical electorate of the right: the Conservatives, the Liberals, the Anti-Assistance and the Identities.
Only 7% of Conservatives and 32% of Liberals, who remain very close ideologically to the ex-president, believe that an LR-Ensemble coalition would be “the most appropriate to form a government” – against, respectively, 21% and 41 % for an LR-RN coalition. “The hard core of the Sarkozyist right tends to move away from Emmanuel Macron, in search of a more right-wing offer, to Reconquest! or at the National Rally”, analyzes Jean-Yves Dormagen. Among the Identitaires, the shift is even more obvious: 45% of them support the idea of ??an LR-RN coalition, against only 7% for LR-Ensemble.
This poll therefore reflects both a demand for continuity and a growing polarization of the political class, where “everyone stays on their side. In this sense, the phenomenon of tripartition seems set to last. Nothing changes at the top of the state, but political blocs come together and fall apart. “We will have to observe very closely the movements of the historical electorate of the right, concludes Jean-Yves Dormagen. It is they who will probably determine the political color of the next majority in power. »
* Study conducted by Cluster 17 with a sample of 1,747 people aged 18 and over. The sample is made according to the quota method. Interviews conducted May 23-24.
