The Italians are called upon to elect a new parliament until 11 p.m. this Sunday. The result could bring about a dramatic change in direction for the country – a drift towards right-wing populism and nationalism. An overview.
Why do the parties compete in alliances?
Italian electoral law, since 2017 a mix of proportional representation and majority voting, favors parties that form alliances before the election. The center-right camp consists of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s national-populist Lega and Giorgia Meloni’s “post-fascist” Fratelli d’Italia. The proportions in this camp have shifted more and more to the right in recent years: once Forza Italia was the strongest force, now it’s Meloni’s party.
Why is the election also a fateful election for the EU?
For two reasons, one political and one economic. Italy is one of the founding members of the European Union. Should the right-wing camp win, there is likely to be a strongly nationalistic change of course. Meloni and Salvini maintain close contacts with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the far-right Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen. Meloni also supports the far-right Vox party in Spain, and Salvini’s Lega signed an agreement with Putin’s United Russia party in 2017. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday during a lecture at Princeton University in the USA: “We will see what the elections in Italy result in. If the situation becomes difficult, we have the necessary instruments.”
In terms of the economy, Italy’s national debt is 2.760 trillion euros. That’s around 150 percent of gross domestic product – in the euro zone, only Greece has a higher debt ratio. In addition, Italy is the country that will receive the highest amount from the European reconstruction fund at almost 200 billion euros. Meloni wants a revision of the fund because of the exploding energy costs, Salvini is counting on new debts. “Should Italy start to slip, it would have great difficulty bringing new government bonds onto the market,” Italian economist Nicola Nobile told ntv.de. A financial imbalance in Italy, after all the third largest economy in the euro area, could have serious consequences for the entire currency community, “which has been in recession since this semester anyway,” said Nobile.
Why is the Fratelli d’Italia party, the brothers of Italy, called “post-fascist”?
Founded in December 2012, this party has its roots in the neo-fascist Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI) party, founded in 1946 by Mussolini supporters who had returned home. Their symbol was the flame in the colors of the Italian flag. In the 1980s, the MSI tried to present itself as national-conservative, although some of its members continued to cultivate clearly neo-fascist ideas. In 1995 the name was changed to Alleanza Nazionale. The then chairman Gianfranco Fini distanced himself from fascism, which he described as “absolute evil”. The Alleanza Nazionale, in turn, was merged into the Fratelli d’Italia in 2009.
The current party leader Meloni, who was already a member of the MSI youth organization, has never distanced herself so clearly from fascism. The flame was also retained in the new party’s logo. Her relationship with the Fratelli roots is a balancing act. The political scientist Giovanni Orsina says, “that the new voters won by the party are not nostalgic for fascism, but only see a tough politician in Meloni.” At the same time, militants from the right-wing extremist milieu continue to run for the party, who are nostalgic of fascism and repeatedly show the “Roman salute” at rallies.
Why is the centre-left camp so weak?
Italy’s Democratic Party (PD), like many of its social-democratic sister parties in Europe, is fighting with a certain quarrelsomeness, if not with an urge to self-mutilation. Under former, smug party leader and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, the party risked bleeding to death from numerous resignations.
Calm returned after Renzi left the party in 2019, but instead of consolidating the party’s identity and developing clear programmatic lines, first Nicola Zingaretti and then the current party chairman and top candidate Enrico Letta put their energy into building a broad alliance with the 5-Star -Movement. The break only came when the 5 stars, together with Forza Italia and Lega, caused Prime Minister Mario Draghi to resign in July. Whatever the outcome of the election, the Democratic Party must find itself if it is not to depend on the whims and power strategies of others in the future.
What do the polls say?
Current data are not available because the publication of polls in the two weeks leading up to election day is banned in Italy. Most recently, the legal alliance was clear, Melonis Fratelli can hope to become the strongest force. In the 2018 elections, the post-fascists received just over four percent.
When can Italians expect a new government?
“It depends on whether the election result is clear or whether there is a stalemate between the alliances,” says Marzio Breda, a journalist with the daily Corriere della Sera. Should there be a tie, the formation of a government could be delayed. In 2018, it took almost three months for the 5 Stars and Salvini’s Lega to form a government coalition. Until the new government is sworn in, Draghi and his broad coalition ministers will remain in office for day-to-day business.
The only thing that is certain at the moment is that the first session of the new parliament will take place on October 13th. After that, the presidents of the Senate and the House of Representatives as well as the chairmen of the parliamentary groups and committees are elected. “All in all,” says Breda, “President Sergio Mattarella will not begin consultations with the parties until around October 18.”
What are the most urgent tasks for the new government?
“No matter who will lead the next government, he is not to be envied,” says economics expert Nicola Nobile. The budget law must be in place by the end of the year. In addition, important reforms and laws have yet to be passed in order to receive the tranche of 22 billion euros from the EU recovery fund that is due in early 2023.
“But a new aid package to help companies and families suffering from energy prices and inflation should have absolute priority. And that requires new borrowing,” said Nobile. Draghi has so far resisted it. But Nobile sees no alternative. “After all, Germany and France have now also decided to do so and have passed consistent aid packages.”
