A good week before the presidential election, the situation in Nigeria is getting worse: violent protests are increasing, bank branches are being set on fire. The reason is the increasing frustration in the face of fuel and cash shortages, which are further destabilizing the crisis-hit country.
More than 93 million Nigerians are called on February 25 to elect a new president in Africa’s largest economy. Nigeria is in a severe economic crisis, marked by record inflation and increasing extreme poverty. The country is also characterized by a precarious security situation in almost all parts of the country: from Islamist terrorism to violent conflicts over land use and attempts at secession. The poorly trained and equipped security organs can hardly react adequately. Finally, endemic corruption, elite politics and nepotism are hampering the country’s development.
Just days before what are expected to be landmark elections in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing increasing destabilization. For about a year there has been a regular shortage of petrol. Although the country is one of Africa’s largest oil exporters, it does not have a single working refinery and imports refined oil from abroad. In addition, there has not been enough cash in circulation for several weeks. Shortly before the turn of the year, the central bank surprisingly announced that it would issue new notes in the national currency, the naira. The deadline for paying in old banknotes expired last week without enough new banknotes being issued in time. People across the country are currently waiting in front of banks for hours, mostly in vain.
In the past few weeks, these two acute crises have potentiated each other. Just a few weeks ago, laconically, in a typically Nigerian way, the slow implementation of the cash reform was being joked about, today chaos and turmoil are dominating the situation. They culminated this week in violent riots and arson attacks on bank branches across the country; The media reported three deaths in this context. Due to a lack of or sometimes contradictory communication from various government agencies, it is currently unclear which notes are currently (still) accepted as cash and which are not. Meanwhile, people are starving while parallel trade in the new notes is booming.
In this mixed situation, there is a risk that the elections cannot be carried out as planned. As the situation in the country continues to deteriorate, the Electoral Authority is adamant that the elections go ahead as planned. Together with the government, she is working flat out to be able to prepare and conduct the elections without hindrance. Low voter turnout is also a concern as many Nigerians do not live where they are registered to vote and travel to polling stations is a real hurdle due to the fuel and cash crises.
There are candidates from 18 political parties running for president, but only three have realistic chances. The candidates of the two major parties, Bola Tinubu for the All Progressive Congress (APC) and Abubakar Atiku for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), are both political heavyweights and represent elite politics to date. In addition to the two candidates from the APC and PDP, there is another serious candidate in Peter Obi from the Labor Party (LP), who could break up the two-party system that has actually existed since the democratization of the country in 1999. Obi is the only one who manages to mobilize the young electorate that wants more representation. Since parties in Nigeria mostly act only with shadowy programs, the programs of the three candidates are similar. The core issues of security, economy and corruption remain the key issues for the citizens of the country.
Other aspects are new. For the first time, for example, the group of young voters can be decisive. Almost 40 percent of registered voters are under 34 years old. Nigeria’s stability and development will also depend on this constituency being able to translate its concerns into political power. The upcoming elections are also different in that numerous technical innovations have been introduced to prevent election manipulation. Among other things, the personal identification is done digitally this time and the election results are also transmitted digitally.
Amid the already poor security situation, election-related violence has increased in the past six months: there have been more attacks on election authority facilities than in the last election. This violence could escalate further during and especially after the elections, as every conceivable election result carries with it the potential for unrest. How much the ethnic, religious and regional identity of the candidates – an important category in Nigeria – will influence the voting is difficult to predict. These aspects have polarized the electorate. Experts say the country is more divided than ever.
The outcome of the elections will have huge implications for Nigeria, the entire West Africa region and beyond. A contentious or violent vote could exacerbate Nigeria’s governance problems and diminish its position as a democratic role model on the continent. A peaceful election is crucial both for the cohesion of the country and for the positive spill-over effect on a region marked by military coups and instability. Nigeria’s further development is important for Germany and Europe simply because by 2050 the country will be the third most populous country in the world after India and China. The proverbial “Giant of Africa” ??is already Germany’s second most important trading partner and largest sales market on the continent and holds great potential for innovation and growth. The stakes are high for Nigeria, the African continent and its neighbor Europe.
Marija Peran is the head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Nigeria office in Abuja.
