How great is the danger posed by a possible attack from Belarus? British secret services are apparently relaxed about the situation. The Belarusian and Russian units are currently not capable of successfully attacking Ukraine from the north.
British secret services currently consider a successful Russian offensive in northern Ukraine from the direction of Belarus to be unlikely. According to a report by the British Defense Ministry, Moscow recently stationed more reservists in Belarus and the country itself inspected the combat readiness of its armed forces a few days ago.
However, it cannot currently be assumed that the Belarusian troops and Russian units could form a force capable of carrying out a successful attack on northern Ukraine. Belarus supports Russia’s war against Ukraine – for example by allowing Russian missiles to be launched from its territory.
Apparently, the Ukrainian military is also not expecting an attack from the north any time soon. New Russian divisions are being trained on Belarusian territory, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov said. However, the likelihood of a military operation against Ukraine being launched from Belarus remains low.
Belarus is checking its troops’ combat readiness
Just a few days ago, Belarus scheduled a surprise troop inspection. By order of ruler Alexander Lukashenko, the “combat readiness” of the Belarusian armed forces should be checked.
The troops involved in the inspection should go to “designated areas” as soon as possible and “organize their security and defense,” according to the Ministry of Defense. In addition, they should build temporary bridges over the rivers Memel and Bjaresina.
Lukashenko is a close ally of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. Before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Moscow held military exercises in Belarus. At the beginning of the offensive, Russian soldiers also entered neighboring Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Kyiv has since strengthened its defenses on its northern border with Belarus and Russia. So far, however, Belarusian troops have not been directly involved in the war.
