With the offensive in the south, parts of the Ukrainian side are talking about a turnaround on the battlefield. But military expert Wolfgang Richter is still reluctant. Also because there could be a role reversal with Russia in the region.
For Moscow, Cherson was the first major success. When Kremlin troops began their invasion of Ukraine, it was the first provincial capital they managed to capture in early March. Since then, the southern Ukrainian city has had a high symbolic value for both warring parties. According to reports, Moscow is already planning to hold a referendum in the region. Similar to Donetsk and Luhansk, Cherson is to become the next so-called People’s Republic. The occupiers are said to have already started handing out Russian passports.
For Ukraine, on the other hand, it would probably have an enormous signal effect if it were to regain control of the first fallen provincial capital. Since the conquest, there have been repeated protests against the occupying forces in Cherson. Governor Dmytro Butriy recently said that some civilians had disappeared from the streets. Especially because of such stories, Kyiv announced weeks ago that it would recapture the south of the country. Western secret services are now seeing the first signs of success. Ukrainian representatives are even talking about the turning point on the battlefield.
Military expert Wolfgang Richter, on the other hand, remains cautious. “At the moment I’m assuming more tactical successes, but not yet a major operational breakthrough,” says Colonel a. D. from the Science and Politics Foundation ntv.de. At the moment it’s not about the provincial capital, which has around 300,000 inhabitants, but rather the surrounding region. “It would be an operational turnaround if you carried out larger, space-consuming operations that would then win back entire regions of Ukraine,” says Richter.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian euphoria is no accident. Only on Monday did the armed forces report that they had recaptured more than 40 settlements since last week. Most of them are in the north of the region and near the Black Sea in the south. The armed forces also take advantage of the geographical conditions. Kherson Oblast is divided by the Dnipro River. On the eastern side lies the city of the same name, on the western side Ukraine achieves its tactical successes.
With the help of Western missile systems, they can remotely target Russian positions across the river. “Western arms deliveries, especially the self-propelled howitzers, play an important role,” says Richter. “And for the targets that are deeper, the US HIMARS systems are very important.”
How effective this can be has been shown since last week. Ukrainian troops have begun cutting off Russia’s strategically important supply routes across the river. The important Antonivka bridge just outside the city of Kherson has already been so damaged that it is no longer passable. The same applies to other important routes across the Dnipro. The last river crossing is a bridge at Nova Kakhovka, north of Cherson.
This is one of the reasons why there are efforts in Moscow to build temporary pontoon bridges across the river. Because without a secure way to get logistical goods and reserves to the west of Cherson, it will also be more difficult to hold the region. “If the Ukrainians succeed in cutting off the Russian supply lines on the Dnieper, they can achieve local superiority west of the river,” explains Richter. This explains Kiev’s tactical successes in western Cherson.
But the Kremlin troops react to it. Ukraine reports massive troop movements. “The fact that the Russians are moving troops from the Donbass to the south is a sign that they are expecting a relatively strong offensive by the Ukrainians in certain areas,” said military expert Carlo Masala in the “Stern” podcast “Ukraine – die Location”.
In Masala’s view, Ukraine’s push in the south can weaken the concentration of Russian troops in the Donbass. This also affects the Russian strategy of “defending relatively small territories or conquering areas with an insane concentration of personnel and material”. The Kremlin troops were then spread too far apart for that. In any case, according to the SWP expert Richter, Ukraine in the Donbass has meanwhile resorted to delaying tactics. After the fall of Lysychansk a few weeks ago, they withdrew their troops to previously fortified defense lines. It helps them when Russia tries to break through to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk with fewer forces.
In addition, the Kremlin troops have apparently suffered heavy casualties in the past five months. According to Richter, there are considerations of partial mobilization. This should also make more reservists available for the south. “We’ll see if the Russians can still get enough reserves on the ground,” says Richter. “That is, in the end we are faced with the question of who has more material reserves and can bring them to battle faster.” Although the Russians are able to draw from their own ranks, it is questionable whether they can transport the material quickly enough. On the other hand, Ukraine is dependent on Western arms supplies.
In addition, Ukraine has two new roles to play. So far, the much-heralded offensive by Kiev in the south is not operationally recognizable, says Richter. The battles are currently mainly limited to tactical advances. “For a large-scale offensive, it is important to concentrate superior forces and to coordinate fire and movement,” explains the military expert, “that is, to also use fire blasts for forward movement.” It remains to be seen whether Ukraine can do this on an operational scale.
The second problem awaits the Ukrainians should they actually reach the provincial capital. “There could be a mirror-image scenario,” says Richter, “that Ukraine has to attack cities held by the Russians. Because they offer the defender the advantage of cover, while the attacker has limited use of its superior range, which he would have in pitched battle.” That would be the reversal of the situation in Donbass. Suddenly it would be the Russians who would force the Ukrainians into exhausting house-to-house fighting. “If you don’t want to give up these advantages and fight for every street, this usually leads to the destruction of the civil infrastructure in the cities.”
The recaptured settlements in Cherson already show how this can end. Ukrainian Governor Butriy said Monday that some of these towns were “90 percent destroyed” and “still under constant fire today.” He described the humanitarian situation in the region as “critical”. Weeks ago, the Ukrainian military administration called on the population to leave the area around Cherson, which also applied to the provincial capital. But Richter says: “We’re still a long way from there.”
