Ukraine is pushing for supplies of western main battle tanks to defend against the Russian invasion. But many states hesitate. European politician Viola von Cramon considers the reasons for this to be flimsy. The federal government must reconsider its position. This is in their own interest.
ntv.de: Russia is shelling the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine massively, at the same time the country is below zero. You yourself were in Kyiv in November. What was your impression?
Viola von Cramon: It was very cold in November and it snowed. There was no electricity in many districts of Kiev. But people were in good spirits that they could make it through the winter and survive the cold. There was a great willpower. However, it cannot be predicted whether this will ultimately be possible or whether we will have to take in several hundred thousand or even millions of people again because the pipes have burst, the power supply is not available and people are freezing.
Does it need more support from the West?
The EU and its international partners are doing everything they can to prevent another mass exodus. But we don’t know if we can deliver everything quickly enough to where it is needed. We also do not know if the generators that are being delivered will be sufficient. The Ukraine can only provide short-term repair measures.
Did the EU expect Russia’s massive attacks on civilian infrastructure?
Not with this brutality. These targeted attacks, hitting and killing masses of civilians, were difficult to imagine. But there is this brutality and it is important that we accept the reality and think carefully about what we can do to counter it. One is the restoration of civilian infrastructure, the other is much-needed military protection. Ukraine needs anti-aircraft defenses, needs anti-aircraft defenses, needs the ability to retake its own territory. And they won’t be able to do that without western tanks.
And where are they?
Some EU member states seem to have reservations on this question, including parts of the federal government.
Why is that?
I can only speculate. I consider the official announcement that Germany must coordinate with international partners to be a pretense. Neither the EU nor the USA would slow down Germany. Of course, the question must be asked why many other EU countries are not sending Western tanks either. However, the Federal Chancellor and the Defense Minister declare a claim to leadership. The Ukrainians rightly ask us: “You’re a big armaments manufacturer, you send weapons all over the world and you have the tanks – why don’t you move? It’s also about your security.” On my trip to the Ukraine, too, people kept asking me about the lack of German tank deliveries. Then it was said: “Doesn’t Germany want us to win?”
And is that true?
I disagree. I do believe that the majority of people in Germany have understood that if Ukraine were not successful, Europe’s entire security architecture could no longer be maintained. If Putin wins in Ukraine, we no longer have to talk about climate protection, the energy transition and tolerance towards minorities. Then the authoritarian system has pushed even further towards our borders and member states of the EU might be the next target. Therefore, the German willingness to provide support is very high. A lot is already being done, but there are problems with certain categories such as tank deliveries. There is no question that Ukraine’s victory depends on our willingness to provide armored vehicles in addition to anti-aircraft defenses for those fighting on the front lines. Without western tanks there is no Ukrainian victory. This is extremely important.
Nevertheless, there seems to be skepticism in the federal government. How else could the German position on tank deliveries change?
Many more people from the SPD would have to travel to Kyiv to see with their own eyes what the Russians are doing there. How brutal the war is being waged against the civilian population and what it means to be exposed to daily bombardments. In addition, the government should also understand that the war not only causes high losses, but also high costs. We will rebuild Ukraine. But everything that we cannot protect, we have to pay twice later.
Reconstruction presupposes a victory for Ukraine. What exactly the West understands by this is not always entirely clear.
The European point of view is: Ukraine will decide when the war will end. And she has the right to reclaim all of her territory. The confessions are not the problem, but it worries me that the appropriate technology, especially the heavy western weapons, will not follow suit. I also think that Ukraine cannot be prevented from liberating Crimea. In some European capitals, you might see things differently behind closed doors.
But you have no doubts that Ukraine will win?
I have no doubts about it. My only fear is that victory will come with heavy losses. The Ukrainians will not capitulate. They are already sending everything they have to the front: their intellectual elite, their creative class, simply their male population, which makes up a large part of the economic power. There will be a victory for Ukraine, the only question is when and at what cost.
What do you expect from Russia in the coming months?
Of course, Russia should not be underestimated. We see that the Russians are capable of learning. They will probably come through the winter less well than Ukraine. But in the spring, Russia will launch an offensive. It is questionable whether Ukraine is sufficiently prepared for this. In addition, we must always try to make a difference in Russia. Forces that want to end this war must finally be at work there. The realization must prevail that Russia can only emerge from the war with high losses, similar to what happened in Afghanistan. But if we don’t send enough military materiel and equipment, Russia won’t get to that point.
Will international support for Ukraine continue next year?
There is a big danger: Next year Ukraine’s harvest will collapse completely. At the same time, Russia has brought in a record amount of over 100 million tons. So Russia will put massive pressure on those countries that have so far been supplied by Ukraine. Many African and Asian countries indirectly affected by the war have condemned, or at least abstained from, the Russian war. That must not soften.
How can Germany and Europe influence this?
We too must provide more grain from our stocks. That would also mean feeding less to our animals or using less for our beer. We must ensure that we enter into close economic relations with the countries concerned. Seeking direct dialogue, invitations to multilateral committees – all of this is incredibly important. But we must also make it clear to countries that they must use political influence to stop this brutal war. No country can sit back and pretend none of this matters.
Marc Dimpfel spoke to Viola von Cramon
