In view of recent successes, the military leadership in Kyiv is optimistic: the deputy defense minister even sees an advance on Crimea as possible by the end of the year. The war could be over by the middle of next year. However, a special event could speed up the process.
The Ukrainian deputy defense minister said he was optimistic that his troops could be in Crimea by the end of December and that the war in his own country could end by the middle of next year. “My feeling is that this war will be over by the end of spring,” General Volodymyr Havrylov said in an interview with British television channel Sky News. He does not think it impossible that the Ukrainian military will advance to Crimea by the end of the year. Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014.
From a military point of view, the war could drag on for a while, Havrylov admitted. The Ukrainian army still needs some time to reach its full potential. In addition, Moscow is bringing new troops to the front. But the reconquest of further areas is only a matter of time and a “Black Swan” (“Black Swan”) in Russia could speed up the process significantly.
A “Black Swan” is an unexpected event with massive consequences. Havrylov speculated on a possible end to Vladimir Putin’s rule given Russia’s disappointment with the course of the war.
Most recently, various high-ranking military officials had commented on the further course of the war. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, for example, was less optimistic than Hawrylow in the middle of the week. He assessed the chances of a short-term, military victory for Ukraine as slim.
Milley said Ukraine had recently had enormous success in defending against the Russian offensive. But areas recently liberated from Russian occupation, such as Kherson and Kharkiv, are small compared to the challenge of driving Russian forces out of all of Ukraine.
