Parliamentary elections in Sweden in politically turbulent times: Social Democrat Andersson wants to lead the Scandinavian country into NATO. However, the left and right camps are almost the same. Above all, the Swedes are concerned with a domestic political problem.
“Sweden’s time as a moral superpower that changing prime ministers dreamed of is over – an example of fear and a warning.” The Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten came to this devastating verdict shortly after Magdalena Andersson took office as Prime Minister at the end of last year. The newspaper added: “One of the best and safest societies in the world was handed over to the forces of the jungle because an arrogant power elite would rather save the world than take care of the Swedes.”
Shortly before, Andersson’s colorless predecessor Stefan Löfven had thrown in the towel in exasperation. His red-green minority government fell over a dispute over rent controls for new buildings. Andersson then formed an all-Social Democrat minority cabinet and managed to keep her party number one in the polls.
The cash register is now on Sunday, because the Swedes are electing a new Reichstag. You are doing this in a phase that is even more of a turning point for the Kingdom than for Germany. Sweden, which after all survived two world wars unscathed as a neutral nation, is striving to join NATO together with its Finnish neighbor because Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. The way has been paved for rapid accession. Prime Minister Andersson knows that most of the population is behind her on this issue.
Why has Sweden, as described by “Jyllands-Posten”, lost the aura of a great moral power? It’s not foreign policy that got the largest Scandinavian country into trouble. Swedes have been used to reports of Russian submarines circling off their coast for decades. Despite the imminent entry into NATO, foreign and security policy does not play the most important role in the election campaign.
The Swedes are mainly concerned with one topic: the increasingly rampant gang crime. Hardly a day goes by without a shooting being reported. A man died in a Malmö shopping mall. In the small town of Ekilstuna, a mother and her child were shot at a playground. In the two largest cities, Stockholm and Gothenburg, gangs are also fighting each other with all their brutality, leaving the dead and injured behind. The Swedes are increasingly worried, calls for a strong state are getting louder. The often overwhelmed police force calls for an increase in personnel. In short: Astrid Lindgren’s Bullerbü-Sweden was once.
The beneficiaries of this development are the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats (SD), who are well on the way to coming in ahead of the conservative moderates, who are comparable to the German Union parties. SD chief Jimmie Åkesson accuses Andersson of not fighting the growing crime forcefully enough. He is also targeting the government’s migration policy, because people with a migration background are often involved in the shootings. According to Åkesson, “there is no other factor that has affected Sweden so much and so negatively as the large, uncontrolled and lax migration policy”. The 43-year-old dreams of a Sweden with the lowest immigration rate in Europe.
It’s not as if Prime Minister Andersson sees no need for action with regard to the development of parallel societies, especially on the outskirts of the larger cities. However, she holds back verbally and says that the problems that have accumulated in recent years cannot be solved solely by the police. During the election campaign, she promises more efforts to prevent crime. For this it is necessary to send more social workers with a migration background to the focal points. In addition, Andersson promised to bring the issue of education more to the fore. Her prudence resonates with most Swedes. In general, Andersson’s popularity ratings are higher than those of her party. Nevertheless, the Social Democrats rank in the polls with 29 percent, well ahead of the Sweden Democrats, who come to 20 percent.
However, the left and right camps are currently almost level overall. Even moderate leader Ulf Kristersson, whose party is in third place with 17 percent, can still hope for the office of prime minister. Prime Minister Åkesson is also not entirely out of the question in the event of a right-wing majority. However, it is still too early for that, because this solution is unthinkable for large sections of the moderates, who four years ago still pursued a strict policy of excluding right-wing populists. In the event of a right-wing majority, the Åkesson group could assume the role of majority procurer – without being represented in a cabinet led by the moderates. But, as already mentioned: Nothing is impossible in Sweden in 2022, especially since the Sweden Democrats, Moderates, Liberals and the conservative Christian Democrats showed no reservations in their joint pro-nuclear campaign. What is remarkable is that four years ago the Liberals still supported Löfven’s red-green government in order to avoid cooperation with the SD.
Andersson, Kristersson or Åkesson? One thing is certain: forming a new government will be complicated. Because even within the respective camps, there is a worrying crunch. In addition to the SD, the Left Party (Vänsterpartiet) played a key role in Löfven’s downfall. During the time of the coalition with the Social Democrats, the Greens (Miljöpartiet) slipped below the four percent mark necessary for entering the Reichstag and were only able to recover somewhat outside the government.
As things stand, it’s back to a minority government. The Swedes have no problem with that; in the past few decades there have been several cabinets without their own majority in parliament. The alleged “arrogant power elite” from the point of view of “Jyllands-Posten” has always found a way to get Sweden through a legislative period.
Another fact is worth noting: in Sweden, a Prime Minister (Statsminister) is elected if the majority of MPs does not vote against him or her. For the formation of a minority government it is sufficient to persuade other parties to abstain.
This already brought remarkable results: In 1978, for example, Ola Ullsten succeeded in becoming Minister of State in a purely liberal minority government, although his party only occupied 39 of 349 seats in the Reichstag. Ullsten held out until the 1979 general election. However, such a constellation is no longer likely given the increasing social differentiation in Sweden.
(This article was first published on Sunday, September 11, 2022.)
