The alleged act of sabotage on the Nord Stream pipelines has highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The Swedish island of Gotland is arming itself against “unconventional threats”.
The risk of an unconventional Russian military operation affecting Gotland cannot be ruled out, says Colonel Magnus Frykvall, commander of the P18 regiment stationed on the Swedish island. “That would require well-trained forces, special forces or high-tech weapons. But I think it’s possible.”
We meet the 47-year-old at Suderbys Herrgård, an idyllic 1820s mansion converted into a hotel surrounded by chestnut trees and just a few kilometers from Tofta Skjutfält military training area. The military exercise “BaltOps 22” took place there in June, in which Swedish and NATO troops trained together. In addition to the Leopard 2 A5 SE (“Stridsvagn 122”) tanks, the vehicle hall at the military training area also contains the lighter armored combat vehicles 90 (Stridsfordon 90).
Sweden re-established a permanent military presence on Gotland in 2018 with the deployment of the P18 regiment. It was drastically increased after the start of the Russian war in Ukraine. “Our military budget for this year is between 150 and 200 million Swedish crowns,” that’s the equivalent of 13 to 18 million euros. “Most of it is spent on military exercises,” says Colonel Frykvall. “In addition, there are investments in military equipment.”
From Gotland in Sweden to Bornholm in Denmark, where the leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Baltic Sea gas pipelines were discovered, it is around 358 kilometers as the crow flies. The port of Slite in east Gotland was used to ship pipes for the construction of Nord Stream 1 between 2010 and 2012. Gotland Municipality later wanted to do the same for the construction of Nord Stream 2. However, the government in Stockholm was more far-sighted than that in Berlin: they were concerned that this would harm Sweden’s defense interests, and the plans were scrapped.
The choice of location for the alleged sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2 should send a clear signal to Sweden and Denmark, according to Stefan Lundqvist, a military expert at the Swedish Defense University. The alleged attack could also have taken place further out in the Baltic Sea, which was not the case, according to the expert. This is a clear indication of the vulnerability not only of Sweden’s energy infrastructure, but also of power and communication cables and subsea infrastructure. Gotland relies on mainland cables for its power supply. The two connections that are still in operation today were moved in 1983 and 1987. There are plans to lay a third cable.
“Russia continues to be weakened in Ukraine by conventional means. So the political narrative in the Kremlin is getting stronger and the threats are getting more widespread,” says Lundqvist. If the situation escalates further, there could be a hybrid attack, says the expert. These could include the use of cyber warfare capabilities, intelligence operations, undermining trust in Swedish authorities and attacks on undersea infrastructure. “Western navies must therefore act quickly” to minimize these vulnerabilities, according to Lundqvist. On October 26, the Swedish Navy began new inspections near the Nord Stream pipelines. They are running independently of the criminal investigation, Captain Jimmie Adamsson, a spokesman for the Swedish Navy, told AFP.
During the Cold War there were even four regiments on Gotland. “We had coastal artillery and anti-aircraft defenses. Our goal now is to restore the full range of capabilities,” says Tomas Ängshammar, Gotland Regiment’s chief of communications. Sweden will receive two new A26 submarines optimized for shallow waters like the Baltic Sea. Rocket artillery such as HIMARS could be used to defend the island from mainland Sweden. If necessary, she could also be used from Gotland to protect the Baltic States. The P18 Regiment is to be increased to 4,000 fully mobilized soldiers in just one year. In May exercises for homeland security troops “Hemvärnet” were held on the island. A total of between 300 and 400 Homeland Security soldiers are stationed on Gotland.
In everyday life on the island, these military developments can only be felt sporadically. Taxi drivers say they are now “picking up soldiers from the airport much more often”. Local authorities are working hard to solve the housing shortage problem. During the peak tourist season, it can be difficult for career soldiers to find accommodation for rent. The regiment takes care of housing the conscripts itself. During military exercises, Swedish and American planes and helicopters such as the JAS 39 Gripen, F 15E, C-130 and CV-22 Osprey can be seen flying at low altitudes over the capital Visby. A sign reading “Fuck Putin” hangs on the window of a design shop in the old town. Many locals support the military build-up, not least because it means a cash flow for local businesses and businesses. In September, the USS Arlington arrived in Visby for a scheduled port visit. “The staff at one of the restaurants said it was great because Americans tip so generously,” says Rikard von Zweigbergk, Gotland Municipality’s head of preparedness and civil defense.
The funds for his department have increased from 3 million crowns to around 12 million crowns in the last four years, i.e. from around 272,000 to more than one million euros. The approximately 6,500 residents who work for the community have been asked to stock up on medicines, petrol and chemicals to purify drinking water and to keep their vehicles fully fuelled. Booklets specially printed for this purpose explain how to survive three days without help. There are tips like, “Get a camp stove with fuel, a can of water, a flashlight, and a radio with spare batteries.” According to Sweden’s “Total Defence” law, of Gotland’s 61,000 residents, all between the ages of 16 and 70 should be able to actively help in a crisis or war situation. “We’re working a lot on change management” to adjust current workflows and make sure everyone has a “plan B” and knows what to do in an emergency, says von Zweigbergk. “It’s 100 kilometers to the mainland. That’s why we often talk about lock-in, meaning the risk of being ‘trapped’ on the island.”
During World War II, the island was in danger of being left alone against Nazi Germany, says historian Michael Scholz, who teaches modern history at the Gotland campus. The locals have long been aware of the need for self-defense. “The military is part of the identity of this island.”
Although not widely known, Gotland lived under Russian occupation, albeit briefly. In 1808 it lasted around three weeks, says Tryggve Siltberg, a native of Gotland and emeritus state archivist. Over these 27 days he wrote a book of almost 700 pages. “The ‘War’ on Gotland in 1808 was a good war. No violence, just negotiation.”
Siltberg’s successor Jan Östergren and his wife Maria Larsson Östergren brought out the writings of the Visby cathedral chapter from the years 1801 to 1811 in the state archive. It meticulously records the events of that time, including the residents’ uncertainty as to whether they should pray in the churches for the Swedish king or the Russian tsar.
Although she deals with the past professionally, Maria Larsson Östergren admits that she has become increasingly concerned about the future of late: “I hope that 2022 will not go down in history as the time when Gotland separated from said goodbye to his peaceful life.”
