Le Pen would improve his score if the presidential election took place tomorrow

April 5, 2023

Marine Le Pen would significantly improve her 2022 score if the presidential election were held tomorrow, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio published on Wednesday.

The leader of the National Rally would collect 31% of the vote if the first round of the presidential election took place next Sunday, in the case of a single candidacy from the left around Jean-Luc Mélenchon (22%) and facing Edouard Philippe for the presidential majority (28%).

In 2022, Emmanuel Macron had won 28% of the votes in the first round, Marine Le Pen 23%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 22%.

If the left did not leave united, Marine Le Pen would come first (29%) ahead of Edouard Philippe (26%), but it reaches 36% of voting intentions in the event of a candidacy of François Bayrou for the presidential majority. (9%).

Gérald Darmanin would do a little better (11%) but Marine Le Pen would then attract 35% of the vote. Bruno Le Maire would rise to 18% against 32% for the candidate of the National Rally.

“His image has completely changed and so has the structure of his vote. It’s no longer the FN vote of yesteryear, it’s now a catch-all vote”, explains to Figaro the boss of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi, of which another study published on Wednesday reveals that a majority of those questioned consider that Ms. Le Pen is “close to the concerns of the French” (58%, 2 points in one year), “attached to democratic values” (57%, 4 points ), “competent” (52%, 6 points) and “capable of reforming the country” (51%, 8 points).

47% of respondents also consider that Marine Le Pen “has the stature of a President of the Republic” (5 points).

If the left left in scattered ranks, the Insoumis leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon would collect 20% against all the candidates of the presidential majority, except Edouard Philippe: his score would then drop to 17%.

The communist Fabien Roussel would collect between 5 and 6.6% of the votes depending on the configurations.

The Republicans behind Laurent Wauquiez would make between 4% (Philippe hypothesis) and 10% (Bayrou hypothesis). Eric Zermmour would oscillate for his part between 6 and 7%.

The polls are not a prediction but a photograph of the balance of power at a given moment. Moreover, four years before the election, the presidential race has not yet started.

Surveys conducted online, that of voting intentions on March 30 and 31 with a sample of 1,105 people, that on the image of Mrs. Le Pen on March 28 and 29 with a sample of 1,002 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method. Margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.