More and more explosions shake the Crimea annexed by Russia. Even if the background is still unclear, they should worry the Kremlin. A think tank in the US is also anticipating consequences for Russian warfare.
After the explosions in Crimea near Dschankoy and Gvardeskoye, the British Ministry of Defense also commented on the military situation. “Two of the most important Russian military airfields in Crimea are located in the affected areas”. Dzhankoy is also an important road and railway junction, which plays an important role for supplies in southern Ukraine.
Although the cause of the explosions and the extent of the damage in Crimea are still unclear, the Russian occupiers are “most likely increasingly concerned” about the apparent deterioration in security in Crimea, which acts as a rear base for the crew.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also sees the Russian armed forces under increasing pressure from possible Ukrainian attacks. These are likely “part of a Ukrainian counter-offensive” aimed at regaining control of the west bank of the Dnipro River, the think tank writes.
Though Kyiv has not confirmed involvement, attacks could be aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines. “Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine, including forces in the western Kherson region,” the institute writes. “The attacks on Russian ground communications and logistical and support facilities in Crimea are consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which also targets bridges across the Dnipro and Russian logistical support elements in the occupied Kherson region.”
A consequence of the Ukrainian tactics is likely that the Russian armed forces are no longer able to support their forces on the west bank of the Dnipro and to protect them from Ukrainian counterattacks with air and artillery installations on the east bank.
According to the ISW, Russia’s strategic goals remain unchanged: regime change in Kyiv and securing territorial control over most of Ukraine. It is true that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention areas outside the Donbass when he recently described the Russian war goals. However, Russian measures to integrate the occupied territories in Cherson and Zaporizhia into the Russian Federation indicate that the Kremlin has more far-reaching ambitions.
