In the majority, the hypothesis worries as much, if not more, than recourse to 49.3. What would happen to the pension reform if it were passed Thursday morning in the Senate but rejected a few hours later in the National Assembly? “Let’s take the probable hypothesis that the text was adopted by the CMP on Wednesday [commission mixte paritaire, NDLR]. If the text was rejected during the vote in the National Assembly, the examination would continue in a new reading in each of the two assemblies ”, answers Jean-Philippe Derosier, constitutional expert and professor of public law at the University of Lille.

This second reading, specifies Mr. Derosier, would remain subject to the legislative framework provided for this examination of the bill on the amending financing of social security (PLFRSS): article 47.1 of the Constitution, which restricts the period for examination of a PLFRSS at 50 days after the tabling of the bill, including 20 days in the Assembly and 15 in the Senate at first reading. It will therefore be necessary, whatever happens, that the text be voted before Sunday, March 26 at midnight.

If both houses have not voted on the bill by this deadline, the Constitution provides that “the provisions of the bill may be implemented by ordinance.” “It would delay the deadline, but we would still be faced with the same problem, worries an elected Renaissance. Passing such an important text by ordinances would be suicidal. It would go even worse than an adoption without a vote, with 49.3. »

“We would have a pressure cooker ready to explode at any time, both in the street and at the Palais-Bourbon”, abounds a pillar of the majority, who does not exclude that the opposition deputies vote a motion of censorship filed, for example, by the centrist group Liot. This short additional time could also allow the executive to try to convince a handful of recalcitrant elected officials who would have voted against Thursday to vote in favor of the text at second reading. “If we’re thirty votes short, it’ll be mission impossible.” If it can be counted on the fingers of one or two hands, it’s playable, ”summarizes a majority deputy at the heart of the negotiations.

Consult our file: Pensions: the big bang