President Putin’s mobilization could have far-reaching consequences for the country. As Russia is already struggling with an aging society, the loss of many recruits could mean that the population in some areas will shrink dramatically, a top economist has now warned.
According to economist Oleg Itskhoki, Russia will suffer for years from the consequences of the partial mobilization ordered by Vladimir Putin. The country is moving towards a “demographic catastrophe of national importance”. Mainly men between the ages of 20 and 35 would be drafted. “This is a generation that is already rather small,” says Itskhoki in an interview with “Spiegel”.
Because of the slump in births in the early 1990s, it already includes only half as many men as the next higher age cohort. The economist warns that in some regions that are particularly hard hit by mobilization and flight, the population in this age group could shrink by up to ten percent.
There is a high probability that those drafted will not return unharmed from the deployment. Itshoki estimates the probability of injury and death at 60 to 70 percent, based on the recorded losses of recruits from the Russian-controlled so-called “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk.
At the end of September, Putin announced that 300,000 reservists would be called up. This is intended to replenish the army after losses in the aggressive war against Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of Russians fled after the announcement.
According to the report, Itskhoki also expects two waves of violence in Russia. The first will be directly related to “the return of the fighters from the war zone.” The second will hit the country with a long delay. It is related “to the orphans who have to grow up without fathers”.
Oleg Itskhoki, born and raised in Moscow, is Professor of Economics at the University of California. The 39-year-old was recently awarded the Clark Medal, which is awarded by the prestigious American Economist Association to outstanding economists under the age of 40.
