The renewal of half of the seats in the Senate this Sunday should shake up the balance of the Upper House very marginally. But for whose benefit? Most certainly centrists, but to the detriment of Emmanuel Macron, who moreover has made the European elections the next electoral event, conscientiously ignoring these senatorial elections.
Was it a botched act or, on the contrary, a completely deliberate oversight? On July 19, in front of the majority parliamentarians, Emmanuel Macron set his sights on the next electoral deadline: the European elections, according to him, therefore completely ignoring the senatorial elections… And for good reason: the Renaissance group (officially called ” Rally of Progressive and Independent Democrats) led by François Patriat expects to lose weight, between three and five seats, out of a total of twenty-four senators. The objective is therefore to save as many leavers as possible out of the twelve renewables, knowing that the presidential party “has no voters, because it has no cities, no local elected officials”, recalls a strategist. Worse, in rural communities, elected officials in the countryside perceived a strong rejection of Emmanuel Macron. At the Élysée, the head of state will closely monitor the extent of online losses. He is particularly concerned about the fate of Alain Richard, one of his followers, whose re-election in Val-d’Oise seems threatened. The only minister to stand in this election, Sonia Backès (Citizenship) was beaten in New Caledonia by an independence candidate.
After an excellent 2020 vintage, the LR staff expects the dam to be held. With their 145 elected officials, including 65 who are eligible for renewal, the right-wing party is preparing for its majority to crumble a bit, to the benefit of their centrist ally. “Projections based on the latest municipal elections suggest great stability. There may be movements on the fringes which are due to personalities who do not represent themselves or to local divisions, as in Paris. But will the Senate majority budge? No”, deciphers the president of the UDI Hervé Marseille. “In the majority, LR should lose seven to eight seats and the centrist Union will emerge rather strengthened with two or three more seats,” supports a pillar of the High Assembly. The Republicans also see themselves in competition locally from RN lists which, failing to produce elected representatives, could deprive them of votes. All eyes will be turned in particular to the outgoing LR senator from Paris Pierre Charon, a dissident candidate for re-election, in danger. As for the boss of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, the only issue will be whether or not he accomplishes the grand slam with six elected officials in his stronghold of Yvelines. A relative procrastinates: “It would be a nice surprise, but it would be a miracle. »
The centrist group sees the opportunity to gain momentum. “It is not impossible that we will strengthen ourselves,” says its president, Hervé Marseille, who also heads the UDI. The games have been written since the last municipal elections, we intend to strengthen our influence, to weigh in the senatorial majority against the LR to make our differences prevail as we have already done on wind turbines, the budget or immigration, in particular on the regularization of professions in tension. » Objective: the UDI, which has 57 senators, intends to gain more, or even become the second group – after LR – in the Upper House, beating the Socialists who currently number 67. But, temper it Hervé Marseille, “there are two elections in one, that of senators, then the registration of the elected official in a group, and, in the process, he can be snatched up by others”.
For the RN, there is no longer a question of abolishing the Senate, but rather of establishing itself there permanently. Although it is discreet about its ambitions, Marine Le Pen’s party no longer intends to ignore the Upper House in its strategy of conquest of power. To the point of finding yourself dreaming of forming a group, like the one formed last year at the Assembly. The bar is high. If the RN hopes to obtain seats in the North, in Pas-de-Calais, in Moselle and to a lesser extent in Oise, exceeding the ten elected officials necessary for the constitution of a group seems optimistic to say the least. The first deputy mayor of Hénin-Beaumont, Christopher Szczurek, seems in a good position to enter the Palais du Luxembourg.
The communists are likely to retreat into their historic strongholds, namely to lose a seat in Seine-Saint-Denis, another in Val-de-Marne, and a third in Paris. The decline of municipal communism will in fact benefit the Greens, who can win one or two additional seats and become more numerous than the communists. “Which will help change the atmosphere in the Senate, because the Communists are more grassroots elected officials, and the Greens come more from activism and trade unionism,” says an old hand in the Upper House.
The preparations of the lists strained relations within the Nupes, in particular between PS and LFI. The Socialist Party offered some eligible places to the Insoumis, but the Communists (André Chassaigne in particular) opposed it. It was a way for the PS to show its goodwill, and to avoid the creation of rival LFI lists. Moreover, LFI refused eligible places in Jura and on the list of French people living abroad. But the Mélenchonists should not win any seats, since they have almost no major voters.
In total, there are twelve PS/EELV and fifteen PS/PCF union lists. The most emblematic is in Paris, where the three parties signed an agreement. Yannick Jadot, in particular, should be elected (which is a curious choice for the former MEP: Brussels is a much more effective place to wage his environmental fight). This time, it was within the PS that relations became tense: Anne Hidalgo and Olivier Faure’s opponents refused the presence of candidates close to the first secretary on the senatorial list in Paris.
Revenge after Faure’s very critical support for Hidalgo during the presidential election. One of the challenges lies in the presidency of the PS group in the Senate. Patrick Kanner, the incumbent, must face a competing list in the North (that of Martine Filleul, opponent of Martine Aubry), which complicates his re-election. He should then face, for the presidency of the group, Éric Kerrouche (Landes), close to Olivier Faure and pro-Nupes. The PS group in the Senate would therefore change line by being more favorable to Nupes.
