Growing population figures, increasing prosperity and the consequences of war and crisis massively increase traffic on German roads. Freight traffic in particular will increase significantly by 2051, emphasizes Transport Minister Wissing and is again promoting road expansion. Criticism follows promptly.
Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing has presented a new traffic forecast up to 2051, according to which freight traffic on the road will grow particularly strongly and “new records” can also be expected for rail. According to this, traffic will increase everywhere in Germany by 2051, especially in the goods sector. Compared to 2019, the last year before the corona pandemic, traffic performance has increased by half – from 679 to 990 billion ton kilometers.
The truck remains the dominant means of transport and continues to gain in importance, the increase on the road is estimated at 54 percent. Freight transport by rail is increasing by a third, while waterways are stagnating. Accordingly, passenger traffic will increase by 13 percent to almost 1,400 billion passenger kilometers in 2051.
In the individual modes of transport, there is strong growth in rail and air traffic of over 50 percent, bicycle traffic is also growing noticeably by 36 percent, while road traffic is growing only slightly. Nevertheless, cars and motorcycles remained “by far the most popular means of transport for Germans”. More than two thirds of all journeys would be covered with it. The new moving long-term traffic forecast takes into account, among other things, a significant increase in population growth, changes due to the energy transition and the consequences of the Ukraine war.
“I base my transport policy on the actual events, on figures, data and facts and not on political wishful thinking,” explained Wissing. The results of the new forecast made it clear that traffic in Germany would “increase in every respect”. “In order to prevent a traffic gridlock, we now urgently need Germany’s pace for the expansion of all modes of transport – including the road,” demanded the Minister of Transport.
However, the German Environmental Aid (DUH) accused Wissing of being “on the wrong track” with the traffic forecast and demanded that the SPD and the Greens take “action” in favor of rail instead of road. These are “doubtful traffic forecasts for the distant year 2051” that should play into his plans to expand and build new motorways. “The figures presented and the accompanying statements by the FDP and its transport minister make it clear that this party has no interest in modern and sustainable transport policy or in complying with legally binding climate targets,” said DUH federal manager Jürgen Resch.
