In the past few days and weeks, the country has been emotionally discussing tank deliveries to Ukraine. But that hardly leads to major swings in party preferences, as the trend barometer from ntv and RTL shows. For Chancellor Scholz there is still a kind of back breeze.
The decision that Germany should now supply battle tanks to Ukraine was a big deal – the experts agree on that far. When these tanks roll onto the battlefield at some point, the breath of history blows around them and the memories that come up then won’t be good. In short, hardly any branch of arms stirs up emotions like German tanks – so it’s almost surprising how relaxed the voters remain.
In any case, the needle of the RTL and ntv trend barometer only twitches a little. According to the survey conducted by Forsa, the SPD gains one percentage point to 20 percent, Union (27) and Greens (19) each lose one. FDP (7) and Linke (5) remain constant and the AfD gains one point to 13 percent. However, this is all within the statistical error tolerance of 2.5 percentage points. So stagnation is the best description for these minimal changes.
Looking at January as a whole, the picture becomes only slightly clearer. At the beginning of the year, the SPD was still at 18 percentage points. The same applies vice versa for the Union – which reached 29 percent in the trend barometer in the first week of the year, is now somewhat weaker. It is not yet possible to say whether these fluctuations will solidify into upward or downward trends.
But the message is that SPD voters are not turning their backs on Chancellor Olaf Scholz because of the Panzer decision. This is also shown by another Forsa survey for RTL and ntv. According to this, 73 percent of those surveyed think it is correct that Scholz “only made a decision about the delivery of battle tanks after consultation with other NATO partners”. Only 20 percent share the criticism that the Chancellor hesitated too long. Support is particularly high among supporters of the traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP, between 78 (Greens) and 88 percent (SPD). 84 percent of the FDP supporters agree with Scholz’s approach.
Union supporters are more critical, but even among them, 60 percent approve of the approach. The CDU had criticized Scholz for not coordinating more closely with European allies and focusing too much on the Americans. Only when US President Joe Biden agreed to also supply tanks did the German government give the go-ahead for German Leopard 2s.
Overall, the will of the people in the country to continue helping Ukraine remains strong. 70 percent are for further arms deliveries. It was also specifically asked about fighter planes, ships and submarines. According to the same survey, the greatest concern among respondents is that the war could spread beyond Ukraine. 72 percent are afraid of it. 62 percent fear a “worsening of economic conditions” in Germany.
Scholz feels a bit of a tailwind, or perhaps more of a back breeze, when it comes to the question of chancellor preference. If you could elect the Chancellor directly, 25 percent would choose the incumbent directly – if the alternatives were CDU leader Friedrich Merz (21) or Robert Habeck (20) from the Greens. If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were up for election instead of Habeck, 27 percent would tick the SPD politician. That is two percentage points more than in the previous week.
Merz only convinces a good half of its own supporters (53 and 55 percent) and, according to the survey, has the lowest support from its own voter base. In contrast, 69 percent of SPD supporters are behind Scholz. This coincides with another Forsa survey for RTL and ntv. When asked whether Merz was the right candidate for Chancellor of the Union, only 21 percent said “yes”. On the other hand, 57 percent consider other politicians such as Prime Ministers Markus Söder, Hendrik Wüst or Daniel Günther to be more suitable. Among Union supporters, 40 percent said Merz was the right man.
The data on party preferences was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from January 24 to 30, 2023. Database: 2503 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. For data on the Ukraine war and tank deliveries, 1002 people were interviewed between January 27th and 30th. Error tolerance: plus/minus 3 percentage points. Between January 27 and 30, 1002 respondents also responded to the question of whether Friedrich Merz should become a candidate for chancellor. Margin of error plus/minus 3 percentage points.
More information about Forsa here. Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany
