The months pass and unfortunately look the same on the climate front: after September, it is the turn of October 2023 to be the hottest month ever recorded in the world, continuing a succession of monthly highs started in June, the European Copernicus Observatory announced Wednesday, November 8.

“We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year on record” and “the sense of urgent need to take ambitious climate action in the run-up to COP28 has never been stronger “, said Samantha Burgess, deputy head of Copernicus’ climate change department (C3S), in a statement. The 28th United Nations Climate Conference will be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12.

The past month, with an average of 15.38°C across the globe, exceeds the previous record from October 2019 by 0.4°C, according to Copernicus. The anomaly is “exceptional” for global temperatures.

October 2023 is “1.7°C warmer than the average October over the period 1850-1900”, before the effect of humanity’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adds the observatory. Since January, the average temperature has been the hottest ever measured over the first ten months of the year: 1.43°C above the climate of the 1850s-1900s, according to the European observatory.

The limit of the Paris agreement soon to be reached

More than ever, 2023 is approaching over an entire year the emblematic limit (1.5°C) of the Paris agreement, for which COP28 must establish the first official assessment and, if possible, the first corrective measure.

The World Meteorological Organization estimated in the spring that this bar would be crossed for the first time in twelve months over the next five years. However, it will be necessary to measure this increase of 1.5°C on average over several years to consider the threshold reached from a climatic point of view. The current climate is considered warmer by about 1.2°C compared to 1850-1900.

Copernicus measurements date back to 1940, but can be compared to climates of past millennia, established using tree rings or ice cores. These data suggest that current temperatures are likely the warmest in over 100,000 years.

“Life on planet Earth is under siege,” a group of eminent scientists warned in an alarming report at the end of October, noting humans’ “minimal progress” in reducing their CO2 emissions.

As in 2016, the current annual heat record, in 2023 El Niño will add to the effects of climate change to cause the mercury to rise. This cyclical phenomenon over the Pacific generally peaks around Christmas time. It continues to develop “although the anomalies remain lower than those reached at this time of year” in 1997 and 2015 when El Niño was historically strong, Copernicus estimates.

On different continents, in October, drought hit regions of the United States and Mexico. While large areas of the planet experienced wetter than normal conditions, often linked to storms and cyclones. Overheating of the oceans plays a major role in these records.

Sea surface temperatures have broken records every month since April, including October with an average of 20.79°C. This increase has the effect of increasing the intensity of storms, carrying more evaporated water. And accelerate the melting of the floating ice shelves of Greenland and Antarctica, crucial for retaining fresh water from glaciers and preventing massive sea level rise.