If the French men’s football team has already qualified for Euro 2024 and can start looking for a base camp in Germany, where the competition takes place next summer (June 14-July 14), its European neighbors will not are not all in the same situation.
As we approach the final qualifying dates, nine teams – including the host country – are already guaranteed to compete in the European Championship. Of the fifteen places still vacant, twelve will be allocated by Tuesday November 21, the end date of the qualifying matches.
These meetings will be crucial for Italy, the Netherlands and even Croatia, selections renowned on the continent but still not guaranteed to compete in the Euro. Teams already qualified like France, Spain or England will not be able to slow down either. They must finish in the top five of the ten groups to secure top seed status next summer.
Like Norway or Iceland, other teams can no longer finish in the first two places in their group. However, there remains a chance for them to qualify in the play-offs. In March 2024 – four months after the tournament draw, scheduled for December 2 –, twelve teams, selected according to their performances in the 2022-2023 Nations League, will compete for the last three tickets to the final phase of Euro 2024 .
Group A is part of one of the two groups where the matter is heard before the final meetings are held. Relentless, Spain and Scotland are guaranteed to finish in the first two places in the group. Erling Haaland’s Norway, scorer of six goals in five games in this campaign, must now wait to find out if they will play in the play-offs in March 2024. Georgia, although behind Norway, is assured of playing in them thanks to to its first place in League C of the Nations League.
Victorious in all its encounters, France left only crumbs. Behind, with twelve points each, the Netherlands and Greece are engaged in a merciless battle to clinch second place. The Dutch are in a better position because they have one game less than the Greeks and have beaten them twice. If the Oranje win against Ireland in their next match, their qualification will be assured. Otherwise, the Greeks could benefit if they win against the Blues in Athens on November 17.
The big surprise could come from Group C. Behind the English, already qualified and serious candidates for the title next summer, the Ukrainians occupy an astonishing second place, ahead of the Italians. The Squadra Azzurra, which won the last edition of the Euro, will have a real final to play against Ukraine, for the moment three points ahead, on the final day. Before this shock, Italy could return to equal points with Ukraine if it wins against North Macedonia. If they fail to obtain this second place, the Italians will have one last chance in March since they will qualify for the play-offs.
Turkey will participate in its third consecutive final phase of the European competition. The Turks, who will host Euro 2032 with Italy, were able to climb to first place in a tough Group D. Behind, Wales, Croatia and even Armenia are eyeing second place. Advantage all the same for the Welsh who have their destiny in their hands. If they do not finish second, Croatia will be play-offs in March thanks to their first place in the “A” nations league obtained last season.
Group E, where none of the teams were favorites, is currently dominated by the surprising team from Albania. The men of Sylvinho, former coach of Lyon, could play the second Euro in their history after that of 2016, in France. They are followed by the Czech Republic, Poland and Moldova, all three still in the race for second place. The Czechs, second, are best placed to obtain it thanks to their match less than Poland, third. The chances of playing in the Euro are dwindling for Robert Lewandowski and his teammates, who are not certain of playing in the play-offs in March after their third place in the Nations League.
Despite having a talented generation, Sweden will not see Germany next summer and will miss the competition for the first time since 1996. Belgium and Austria have dominated this group F since the start of the campaign and will not can no longer be joined by anyone. Last in its group in League B of the Nations League, Sweden has no chance of competing in the play-offs in March. This group was marked by the end of the Belgium-Sweden match on October 16 due to the attack in Brussels that evening. The match did not resume and both teams obtained a point.
From the draw, this group, without big favorites, seemed to be open to the five teams that made it up. A year later, none of them have yet managed to qualify, although Hungary and Serbia clearly stand out. They can only be caught up by Montenegro, currently five points behind Serbia, who must win their two matches and hope for a misstep from their opponents.
Although the last three groups include six teams, only two places still qualify for the Euro. In Group H, they are currently occupied by Slovenia and Denmark, tied with nineteen points. Only Kazakhstan, still looking for a first participation in the Euro, can join them. But the former Soviet republic has a gap of four points to make up: it must win its last two meetings and hope that one of the two nations in front of it leaves points on the road to hang on this second place. Finland, fourth, is guaranteed to compete in the play-offs.
Reading group I has long been the most complex. Due to the postponement of Israel’s matches, linked to the conflict between the Jewish state and Hamas, the teams never had the same number of matches played. But, since Switzerland’s draw with Israel on November 15, all teams have finally played eight matches. From now on, Romania and Switzerland clearly appear as the big favorites for direct qualification for the Euro. Tied for first with sixteen points, the two selections will still have to be wary of Israel, third, which is four points behind its opponents. If the ranking remains frozen, Israel, which dreams of its first participation in the European Championship, will compete in the play-offs.
Cristiano Ronaldo will indeed be present for his last Euro next summer. After winning their eight matches, the Portuguese are assured of finishing first in group J. Second place seems promised to Slovakia, which has very little chance of seeing Luxembourg return. If the Luxembourgers remain third, they will compete in the play-offs and try to obtain the first qualification in their history in a Euro. Bosnia-Herzegovina, fifth in the group, will also be present in the play-offs, and Iceland also has a slight hope of being present in March.
