Is Angela Merkel going to make it? Will it escape your opponents once again? There will be a first answer to this question next Sunday. Several EU countries meet to discuss refugee policy. Jean-Claude Juncker, president of European Commission, has invited. The unofficial reason for meeting is domestic political dispute in Germany about migration. Merkel desperately needs results to make CSU quiet. And it wants euro-political solutions and no national single-handedly in refugee policy. For good reason: y could mean end of EU.
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So what can Merkel achieve on Sunday?
There is much talk of bilateral agreements. This is mainly due to one that has closed Italy and France 1997. The Chambéry agreement is intended to prevent migrants who are illegally staying in Italy from being able to travel freely to France. The French authorities are rigorously pushing illegal migrants back to Italy. Last year alone, it was 56,000. Interior Minister Seehofer might like that. It is only case that, despite this agreement, Italy and France are repeatedly arguing fiercely. Italy feels disadvantaged by France’s harsh stance.
Why should Italian government now conclude an agreement with Germany in accordance with this pattern? There is no reason for this, except Merkel can offer more to government in Rome. But it is not easy to say what government in Rome really wants.
Matteo Salvini, Minister of Interior and strong man of government, knows how to blow up price. Since he was in office, he was only talking about migration, migration, migration. He has brought about a national emergency. Radicalization is a good thing for voters. According to polls, Salvinis party Lega is now at 32 percent approval.
It is refore a question of persuading a man who has built his success on radicalisation of refugee policy to agree to a deescalation. Not an easy task, certainly not for a chancellor who is as weak as ever in more than twelve years of her tenure.
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There will probably be four things to do on Sunday, mainly in talks with Italians: financial support, a certain number of refugees, stronger border guards and asylum centres outside EU. Possible that this satisfies Italian government.
The EU is not unsuccessful
Merkel can, of course, also point out that EU is not as unsuccessful in terms of migration as Radikalisierer like to present. In year 2017, number of asylum seekers in EU was, according to European Asylum Agency 728,470, year before it was still 1.3 million, and in year 2015 it was just under 1.5 million. This is result of a bundle of measures, ranging from so-called EU refugee deal with Turkey, through better border protection, to Union’s increased commitment to Africa. The reform of European asylum system has also been preceded by a number of things. If y succeed, asylum procedures will be accelerated and deportations forced. It also makes it more difficult for asylum seekers to choose ir target country, where y have best opportunities for recognition, referred to by EU as “asylum shopping”. All things that are rightly demanded by critics of current practice.
It is, of course, a crucial point in reform: distribution of recognised refugees and what is called stable responsibility in EU jargon, question of how long a state is responsible for a refugee before it can be redistributed.
But, in view of progress made in or areas, Merkel could promote this path – European one – to move forward. The support of French President, Emmanuel Macron, is certainly yours.
Merkel can bring a lot of things from Brussels with skill and much more.
But whatever it reaches, it will be of little value if your opponents have decided to chase you out of office – and that is not just your domestic political opponents.
