U.S. intelligence agencies believe that between 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers were killed during the two-week invasion in Ukraine. This could be more than the American casualties in Afghanistan’s 20-year-long war.
Lt. General Scott Berrier, director of Defense Intelligence Agency, stated during Tuesday’s worldwide threats hearing before House Intelligence Committee that analysts gave the estimate low confidence and were relying in part on information from open sources. This could include media reports and social media reports.
This estimate highlights the high price Russia is paying for a conflict Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines called “a shock for the geopolitical arrangement with implications for the future which we are only beginning understand”. According to The Associated Press, an estimated 2,448 American soldiers were killed in Afghanistan during the two-decade war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees the war in Ukraine as one he “cannot afford to lose,” Haines stated. He also said that intelligence analysts for Ukraine anticipate a prolonged conflict with a “persistent, significant insurgency” from Ukrainian forces.
William Burns, CIA Director, stated that Putin is frustrated and angry right now. “He will likely double down and try the Ukrainian military to downsize without regard to civilian casualties.”
Haines stated that American intelligence agencies believe that Moscow underestimated Ukraine’s resistance strength and military challenge. However, Putin might feel the need to continue fighting because the Russian military acts “with reckless disregard” for noncombatants.
She stated that it was not clear if Russia would continue its “maximalist” plan to seize Ukraine, and that Russia’s current economic crisis due to international sanctions is “driving domestic opposition to Putin.”
She said that Putin didn’t anticipate the West’s resistance and the Russian pullback by international business interests.
She said that his public announcement of a heightened nuclear alert was something she had not seen since 1960s.
After U.S. intelligence agencies released a worldwide threat assessment, which concluded that Russia doesn’t want to engage directly in military relations with the U.S. This threat analysis was completed before the Russian invasion.
According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “We assess Russia doesn’t want a direct clash with U.S. troops.” “Russia seeks to reach an agreement with the United States regarding mutual noninterference in their domestic affairs and U.S. recognition that Russia has claimed spheres of influence over large parts of the former Soviet Union.”
As he opened the threats hearing, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) stated that “We are witnessing a largest military conflict in Europe ever since World War II.” We also face many other strategic challenges, including the rise of a bellicose and belligerent China and the threats posed Iran and North Korea.
The document listed China as the first worldwide threat, followed by Russia and Iran. The third year of the global Covid Pandemic has come to an end. Health security was next on the list, with intelligence analysts noting that the “economic fallout from this pandemic is likely continue to challenge governments, and hold back human growth and wellbeing, especially in low-income countries.”
Climate change was also prominently featured.
The document stated that “We believe that climate change will increase risks to U.S. security interests as the physical effects increase and geopolitical tensions build about how to address the challenge.” “However, environmental degradation will more closely intersect with and worsen the effects of climate change in many countries, especially low-income ones.
Each adversary country was contacted to discuss the threat of cyberattacks both military and economic.
The document stated that China poses the greatest, most persistent, and broadest cyber espionage risk to the U.S. Government’s private sector networks and government agencies. China’s cyber pursuits, export of related technologies, increase the threat of attacks against the U.S. homeland and suppression of U.S. content Beijing considers threatening to its control. This also encourages the growth of technology-driven authoritarianism worldwide.
