The electoral turnaround in Ecuador has a name: Daniel Noboa. The moderate candidate, son of one of the richest businessmen in the country, confirmed the meteoric rise announced by some last-minute polls and slipped through the front door ahead of the second round of early elections, to be held in mid-October .
“They will have the opportunity to vote for correísmo and for the option that is not correísmo, which is Daniel Noboa. There is a very important alliance, which is what we have been talking about the most at this time, which is the alliance with the people.” certified Noboa, who despite having 900,000 fewer votes than his rival is starting on equal opportunities, even with a small advantage, in a contest that promises to be closed, despite the fact that the winner of the first round was Luisa González, candidate of the Revolution citizen.
Scrutinized almost 94% of the minutes, González has 33.38% of the support, compared to 23.61% of the standard bearer of the Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN) alliance. In this way, the Citizen Revolution of the fugitive Rafael Correa confirms his hard vote, established in a third of the voters, as happened two years ago, which could not prevent the comeback of the current president, Guillermo Lasso.
“Hope for better days prevailed over hatred,” González cried. The duel is already served: the first woman who would be president in Ecuador against whom she would break all youth records. Noboa has turned 35, compared to Correa’s 43 when he came to power. In those 2006 elections, the ex-president defeated precisely Noboa’s father, so the current ballotage becomes a kind of reissue of those elections.
“Citizens were looking for a new face and Noboa enjoys being new while belonging to a well-known family. He is almost an outsider. The two most important dimensions are going to be not only the polarizing figure of Correa, but also the security issue,” the political scientist John Polga-Hecimovich told EL MUNDO.
The irruption of Noboa also supposes a certain political resurrection for the president, Lenin Moreno, since ADN is supported by the new version of his party, Mover (formerly Alianza País), and by the People, Equality and Democracy movement (PID), headed for a relative.
For History, 16.5% of the votes obtained by the journalist Christian Zurita, replacement for the assassinated Fernando Villavicencio, who, thanks to the wave of solidarity, obtained third place in the electoral ranking, above what the polls predicted, remains. “Fernando, our brave and eternal president, your memory is honored with respect,” Zurita congratulated himself after learning of the results, which are even better for Parliament, where the Construye movement has positioned itself as the second most powerful parliamentary group. Zurita also announced that he will take time off after finishing the electoral process.
In fourth place, far from the expectations that placed him in the ballot, finished the populist Jan Topic, known as the Ecuadorian Bukele, with 14.68%. A success for someone unknown weeks ago, but a shipwreck for the Social Christian Party (PSC), which intended to fight for the presidency supported by the heavy hand of its candidate.
“Noboa connects with the new, with the young, and represents a break with the Correísmo diatribe against anti-Correísmo, changing it for the new against the old. It is a figure that comes out of that traditional structure and also proposes new ideas and does not confront Many have wanted to fight fear with terror, with a war, that negativity did not reach the young electorate. Noboa also carries the legacy of his father, who has invested a lot of money in the campaign. A different candidate to whom his own father gave gives the generational change”, summarized for this newspaper the analyst Matías Abad, who also highlights the “fundamental timing” of Noboa: the breaking point was the assassination and its takeoff, the debate of the candidates. Until then, Noboa was ranked seventh among the eight presidential candidates.
Facing the second round, the Citizen Revolution starts with the 33% obtained by González, which rises to 40% in the case of Parliamentarians. Noboa plays with his 24% and knows that the votes of Villavicencio’s anti-correista candidacy (16%), plus the 7% of the centrist Otto Sonnenholzner, gives him an ideological ground of around 47 points.
“Topic’s vote can be divided and also something from Yaku Pérez, who does not reach 4%. But anything can happen, correísmo knows how to campaign and has a territorial base that will be very involved in the campaign. And it will also depend on the Noboa’s approach, although he has a good chance of being the next president,” Abad envisions.
Whoever occupies the Carondelet Palace from December of this year to May 2025 will once again face a divided Parliament (137 seats), which became Lasso’s great enemy. The Citizen Revolution estimates that it will obtain between 51 and 54 seats, compared to 12 for ADN, 28 for the Construye and Gente Buena bloc, and 7 for Actuemos, the party that presented Sonneholzner. Villavicencio’s movement announced its separation from Construye as soon as the polls closed.
The PSC will once again have the key to power, thanks to its 17 congressmen, capable of supporting Lasso in the elections two years ago to join Correa’s parliamentary group as soon as the legislature begins.
