The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which is only held every five years, begins on Sunday. This is where important groundwork is laid for the world’s second largest economy after the USA – both politically and economically. What to expect from the People’s Congress in terms of personal details:
Xi Jinping is seeking a third term as Secretary-General. If he prevails as expected, it would be a departure from the previous practice, which limited the term of office to two terms. “Xi’s opening speech will set the tone for the next five years,” said analyst Nis Grünberg of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). “He will reaffirm his goals: ideology-driven politics, more authority for the party and more international clout and independence for China.” The party congress will become a “coronation ceremony for Xi and his ideology”. Xi could also seize the opportunity to fill governing bodies with loyal partisans.
A successor to Li Keqiang is being sought. In the past, a new head of government was usually no older than 67, had already served as deputy prime minister and headed several provinces as party leader. Both the highest-ranking candidate Wang Yang and 59-year-old Hu Chunhua meet these requirements. Li Qiang, one of Xi’s closest followers, and Ding Xuexiang, on the other hand, do not have such qualifications, but they do enjoy the confidence of the party and state leader.
According to analysts, China’s current economic difficulties – from the real estate crisis to the corona crisis – could tip the scales in favor of an experienced business leader. Hu is one of four deputy prime ministers and is considered one of the hottest candidates for the post. He has extensive experience in administration – from agriculture to poverty alleviation. Wang, 67, is the chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and is said to have won Xi’s trust.
The 63-year-old Li Qiang is also given opportunities, but his balance sheet is clouded by the two-month rigorous corona lockdown in the metropolis of Shanghai, which has a population of 25 million. As the senior and only vice premier on the Standing Committee, Han Zheng has premier-level experience but is 68 years old, which means he is close to retirement. However, Xi could raise the age limit for Han.
The highest level of power in the party, the Standing Committee of the Politburo, could get two new members – provided the current age norms are observed and the committee size remains at seven members. More than half of the 25-strong Politburo could also be replaced. “The most enduring constant in leadership changes has always been personal power — and Xi certainly has enough of it to unchallengeably reset recent norms and shape the next Politburo and its Standing Committee on his terms,” ??according to a Merics analysis.
Experts do not rule out the slim possibility that there will be no new members in the Standing Committee at all. That would send a strong signal that Xi wants to remain in office beyond a third term. Another extreme scenario would be Xi replacing all previous members with new, younger, and more submissive faces.
With Li Keqiang, an old acquaintance could become the new parliamentary speaker. After the 67-year-old resigns as prime minister, he could either leave politics or remain a member of the Politburo’s Standing Committee as chairman of the National People’s Congress, China’s third most important office. Some party observers speculate that Li may prefer to retire altogether. The reason: His power as prime minister has waned under Xi, and his more reform-oriented economic approach differs from Xi’s agenda. Other observers suspect that Li will not leave as it could create the impression of a split between the leaders.
