After the official start of autumn, things are getting uncomfortable again in Germany. The weather is increasingly determined by rain and lower temperatures. ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander expects an “intense low-pressure area” for the coming week.
ntv: What is currently happening in our weather kitchen?
Björn Alexander: Hoch “Stefan” is currently responsible for our weather. This extends from Germany to southern Scandinavia and brings us a bit of the classic Indian summer – i.e. cool nights with haze and fog and sun with pleasant temperatures during the day.
Does it stay like this over the weekend?
Unfortunately, no. Because the lows are increasingly affecting the weather. First of all with a still rather weak representative. But next week things should get faster.
With what effects?
After the start of autumn on Friday, the weekend will become more volatile with a small low from west to east. Thunderstorms are also possible with little change in temperature. In the next week, a significantly more intense low-pressure area will be knocking at our doors.
What are the weather computer forecasts for this?
During the course of Monday, the low will move from the North Sea to us in Germany. With that, rain showers spread again and it becomes more mixed and windy – sometimes even stormy. What awaits us afterwards is still uncertain. However, the forecasts of the European weather model show a noticeable cooling off.
What does that mean specifically?
The snow line will therefore drop to around 1000 meters on Wednesday and wet flakes would then be possible on the low mountain ranges. Down to this altitude it would be the first snow this season. And even in the lowlands, not much more than 10 to 15 degrees are possible with these calculations. Pretty autumnal.
In view of the cooler seasons: Are there already trends as to how the weather could develop in autumn and winter?
There are. The weather computers of large weather services look at time periods from days to weeks and also in the monthly range. Sometimes up to six months in the future. If such forecasts are usable, it is of course necessary to make the appropriate cuts. But: They are also computer forecasts and in this respect you can look at them and evaluate them.
How are the trends?
In times of climate change, calculations rarely come up with forecasts that are too cold. And this is also the case, for example, with the experimental long-term forecasts of the American weather service NOAA for the next six months. However, compared to previous years, the forecast deviations for autumn and winter are currently just a little too high. A comparatively cool prediction. And that’s not all: even average values ??that are too high can end up being ice-cold phases.
When did that last happen?
The best example is February 2021, which began icy and ended at spring level with record values ??and thus went down in weather history too warm. Despite snow and double-digit minus degrees at the beginning.
From the uncertain look into the future back to the prospects on the first weekend in autumn. What awaits us?
Saturday will be changeable to cloudy and will bring a few showers in the west, while the east can look forward to more friendly sections. The temperatures reach between 14 and 19 degrees. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with showers that may be accompanied by thunder and lightning in the south. The temperatures are little changed at 12 to 19 degrees.
And next week?
On Monday the wind will freshen up briskly in the north-west and stormy on the North Sea. In addition to loosened sections, clouds with occasional rain will pass through. In addition, we can expect 12 to 18 degrees. Tuesday will then be very windy and often wet with 9 to 17 degrees, before it could cool down on Wednesday.
How cold is it getting?
Depending on the weather model, the snow line drops to 1000 meters – maybe even a little below. Otherwise there are often only 8 to 15 degrees left. It is still very changeable and sometimes windy.
Does October bring us chances for improvement or maybe even a golden trend?
In any case. Even if the various weather computers give different ratings for sun and rain at the beginning of the month. According to the American weather model, for example, the showery weather in October will initially last longer. Other approaches, on the other hand, let October start much more golden.
