The investment bank JP Morgan is said to already have emergency plans for power outages in Germany. In an emergency, the staff should be relocated from Frankfurt to London. How realistic is a widespread power failure really? In an interview with ntv.de, energy expert Christoph Maurer from the consulting firm Consentec tells whether the lights will really go out in Germany soon and whether renewable energies increase the risk of a blackout.
ntv.de: Is the fear of a blackout scaremongering or a realistic scenario?
Christoph Maurer: The fear is largely scaremongering. The term “blackout” should be used with caution anyway. Because he means an unplanned large-scale system-wide power failure that has enormous consequences because it can take a long time to restore the supply. This scenario can never be completely ruled out, but with a view to the coming autumn and winter we don’t have to worry about it primarily.
Rather?
What is more likely to happen to us – and possibly even more to consumers in France, for example – is a so-called rotating shutdown. Certain parts of the load are disconnected from the system for certain periods of time. That’s ugly for consumers – but it’s very different from a blackout. It makes a difference whether an entire country has no electricity at the same time or whether a city or a district is temporarily taken off the grid for two hours.
Under what circumstances can a blackout occur?
Large blackout events are extremely rare and mostly not caused by a lack of power in the system. As a rule, there are network problems where something unforeseeable happens. Usually several things come together. For example, after the European power grid has been split into two sub-grids, one half of the system may have far too much power and the other half far too little power. Something like that has to be balanced within seconds. Failure to do so is a scenario that can result in a blackout.
What contribution can longer nuclear power plant runtimes make to German energy security?
The stress test made one thing clear: With extended operation of the nuclear power plants, power shortage situations that are not necessarily probable but conceivable in Germany and thus the mentioned rotating shutdowns in the coming winter could probably be avoided. There would also be such a positive effect abroad.
What impact would it have on the price of electricity if the nuclear power plants continued to run?
How big the impact would be is very difficult to estimate. In terms of quality, this is definitely an electricity price-reducing effect. However, it does not have to be incredibly large in quantitative terms if gas-fired power plants are required for most of the year and set the price. The debate also often misses out: the nuclear power plants would either save gas or reduce the price. They might not do both at the same time, but still have an effect.
What do you have to watch out for if a system is to work completely without coal, nuclear energy and gas?
Precautions must be taken for this. In order to be able to ensure the power supply during a dark doldrums, we need reserve power. Exactly how much of this reserve power is needed and whether it can also be kept in common in Europe still needs to be clarified. Many calculations assume that around 60 gigawatts of reserve power plants must be available. For comparison: Today we have a peak load of around 80 gigawatts.
When will we be able to do without nuclear power plants, without coal, without gas?
A climate-neutral electricity system could be conceivable in 2035 – and that’s ambitious. Earlier I think is unrealistic.
Do renewable energies increase the risk of a blackout?
no A power system based on renewable energies can also be operated safely. This does not mean that the risk of blackouts is higher because of this. However, what we will not be able to do is decarbonise the system without a significant grid expansion and at the same time maintain security of supply.
What role does consumer behavior play when it comes to the load on the power grids during the cold season?
For the coming winter, the main thing consumers can do is save energy. And they should refrain from using electricity-based heating devices such as fan heaters, as this could significantly increase the risks to the security of supply in the electricity system. In the future, however, they will participate much more actively in the electricity market than is still the case today. A major task for the next ten years is to digitize the electricity market. In the medium term, I expect that consumers will be able to see time-varying prices. It will soon make a difference whether someone is charging their electric car at a time when a lot of renewable energy is being fed into the grid or when this capacity is not available at the moment and the electricity price is therefore significantly more expensive.
Juliane Kipper spoke to Christoph Maurer
