For weeks, Ukrainian fighters have been tying down Russian troops in Mariupol. According to the British secret services, they now have to reorganize themselves, which actually takes time. But since the pressure is great, they would probably go into new fights without adequate preparation – with serious consequences.
British military intelligence sees the Russian army under great pressure. Because of stubborn Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol, Russian forces would have to re-arm before they could be deployed effectively. “This can be a lengthy process if done thoroughly,” it says.
However, the Russian commanders are under a lot of “pressure” to achieve visible successes. This means that Russia is likely to rapidly redeploy its forces without proper preparation. This threatens them with “further wear and tear”.
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War also assumes that the Russian armed forces are in a difficult situation. These continued to suffer from a shortage of reservists, which prompted the military leadership to set up decimated tactical battalion groups. An unnamed US defense official said Russian forces still had 106 tactical battalion groups deployed in Ukraine, but would have to disband and combine some to offset losses.
For weeks, Russian troops first besieged Mariupol and then the steelworks, where hundreds of Ukrainian fighters were holed up. Through their resistance, they managed to tie down the Russian troops and delay their advance elsewhere.
In the meantime, according to Russian information, since the beginning of the week 1,730 Ukrainian armed men who had holed up in the bunkers under the steelworks have surrendered. They were said to have been taken prisoner of war. The British Ministry of Defense also speaks of around 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers who would probably have surrendered. However, an unknown number are still in the Azovstal steelworks.
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