In Poland, four months before elections deemed crucial, 500,000 people marched on Sunday in Warsaw to protest against the government, led by the Law and Justice party (PiS) since 2015. Very symbolic, this massive demonstration, the largest organized in the country since Soviet times, was held on June 4, the anniversary of the first Polish semi-free elections, which resulted in the historic victory of the Solidarnosc trade union in 1989.
Coming from all over Poland at the call of former Prime Minister and President of the European Council Donald Tusk, the demonstrators protested against “expensive living, swindling and lying, in favor of democracy, free elections and of the EU”. They specifically opposed legislation to create a “Russian Influence Commission,” which critics say would muzzle opposition.
Dubbed “Lex Tusk” by the opposition, the law indeed appears to target the main opposition candidate, presented by state propaganda as a friend of Vladimir Putin, and could bar him from holding public office for ten years. years.
Described as a “hate march” by the public media – renamed “national” by the authorities since their control – the demonstration thus brought together the entire opposition, united despite their disagreements. The anti-PiS camp is indeed split into three main blocs: the centrist liberals of Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO), the left, and the Christian-Agrarian “Third Way” alliance.
“The fed up is general in Poland, the cup is full, explains Dorota Dakowska. The PiS party has multiplied attacks on the independence of the judiciary, women’s rights, academic freedom… The rule of law and democracy have been undermined and weakened. »
President Duda’s former thesis director, a respected jurist, little known for his excesses, went so far as to declare that he was ashamed of his student, because of the attacks on democracy and the Constitution by the new law. Words that earned him to be called a “redneck” by the Minister of Education.
In the procession on Sunday, signs also displayed, in reference to the authoritarianism of the Belarusian neighbor: “If I wanted to live in Belarus, I would move. “We are not in Belarus, nuance Dorota Dakowska, but Poland is increasingly taking the direction of Hungary. The power attacks LGBT minorities, women’s rights, continues authoritarian and unconstitutional measures, justice is no longer independent and increasingly politicized… There remains a little balance of power thanks to the Senate, where the The opposition retains a narrow majority, but there are fears that this last safeguard may eventually give way. »
For its part, the NGO Freedom House, which assesses respect for freedoms and democracy in the world, has lowered the score for Polish democracy for the eighth consecutive year, reaching the lowest score recorded.
But the PiS retains popularity in Poland, where it remains the country’s leading party, credited with 30 to 35% of voting intentions. The score, too low to guarantee him a majority, could nevertheless allow him to retain power for a third consecutive term, in the next elections in the fall. A foundation that cannot be denied, and which is explained by the disunity of the opposition, but also by the international stature offered to the government by the war in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden recently made an official visit to Warsaw, while the PiS’s decision to unconditionally welcome Ukrainian refugees won it the sympathy of Europe and the support of the population.
“All of this is grist for the mill for the PiS, which has gained real legitimacy on the international scene since the start of the war,” observes Dorota Dakowska. Its leaders present themselves as the only true patriots capable of protecting the Poles in the face of war and “Western decadence”… Which, moreover, is in line with Putin’s propagandist discourse. »
Nothing is therefore written for the next elections. But if the PiS were to win again, for example in a coalition with the ultra-conservative far-right Konfederacja party, whose popularity continues to grow, “they would feel that their hands were really free, fears Dorota Dakowska. At the risk of directing Poland towards even more worrying scenarios. This would be very bad news for Europe, which needs unity against Russia, and whose internal quarrels play Putin’s game. »
